气象因素对乌鲁木齐市慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重期入院的效应研究

A study on the effect of meteorological factors on the admissions of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Urumqi City

目的探讨慢性阻塞性肺疾病(chronic obstructive pulmo-nary disease,COPD)急性加重期入院与气象因素的关系。方法收集2017―2021年乌鲁木齐市某三甲医院COPD急性加重期入院的资料,以及同期乌鲁木齐市气象数据和空气污染物数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag nonlinear model,DLNM)分析气象因素和COPD急性加重期入院的效应关系。结果乌鲁木齐市某三甲医院COPD急性加重期入院人数为5510例,男、女比例约为1∶1。平均温度、平均湿度和平均风速的中位数分别为13.98℃、43.14%和2.98 m/s。相关性分析结果显示,COPD急性加重期入院与平均温度、平均风速、平均湿度均呈负相关(均P<0.05);空气污染物与气象因素有相关性(均P<0.05)。DLNM分析结果显示,低温和高温都有可能是COPD急性加重期入院的风险因素;平均湿度和平均风速越高COPD急性加重期入院的风险越低,但随滞后天数延长可能也会增加入院风险。结论平均温度、平均湿度和平均风速因素对COPD急性加重期入院风险都有滞后效应,且均随着滞后天数的改变产生相应变化。

Objective To explore the relationship between hospitalization and meteorological factors in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).Methods Data on COPD acute exacerbations admitted to a tertiary hospital in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2021,as well as meteorological and air pollutant data from Urumqi during the same period were collected.A distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was used to analyze the effect relationship between meteorological factors and COPD acute exacerbations admitted.Results The number of patients admitted to a hospital in Urumqi with acute exacerbation of COPD was used 5510,with a male to female ratio of approximately 1∶1.The median values of average temperature,average humidity,and average wind speed were 13.98℃,43.14%,and 2.98 m/s,respectively.Correlation analysis found that hospitalization during acute exacerbation of COPD was negatively correlated with average temperature,average wind speed,and average humidity(all P<0.05);There was also a clear correlation between air pollutants and meteorological factors(all P<0.05).The DLNM analysis results showed that the average temperature changes with the number of lag days,and both low and high temperatures might be risk factors for hospitalization during acute exacerbation of COPD;The higher the average humidity and average wind speed,the lower the risk of hospitalization during acute exacerbation of COPD,but the longer the lag days,the higher the risk of hospitalization might also increase.Conclusions Average temperature average wind speed and average humidity have a significant lag effect on hospitalization during acute exacerbation of COPD,and all show corresponding changes with the change of lag days.