战时航材需求预测和储备决策模型研究

Research on the Demand Prediction and Reserve Decision Model of Wartime Aviation Spare Parts

战时航材的消耗规律比平时更加复杂,其消耗的不确定性更加明显。目前,系统开展战时航材需求预测和储备决策方法的研究较少,难以为战时航材筹措、储备、供应等工作的开展提供直接有效的理论指导,一定程度上制约了战时航材的供应保障能力。为此,本文提出开展战时航材需求预测和储备决策模型研究。首先,分析了战时航材的消耗规律,弄清了战时航材需求的影响因素;其次,根据战役持续时间、飞机出动强度、飞机出勤率、航材故障率等因素,建立了战时可用飞机数预测模型、战时航材需求预测模型、战时航材储备决策模型。本文所建模型基本符合战时航材消耗规律,能够基本满足战时中产生的航材需求,可为战时航材筹措、储备、供应等工作开展提供科学的理论依据。本文所提出的方法具有较高的科学性、实用性,对战时各种物资器材的需求预测也具有较高的参考价值。

The consumption pattern of wartime aviation spare parts is more complex than usual,and the uncertainty of their consumption is more obvious.At present,there is relatively little research on the methods of predicting and reserving wartime aviation spare parts demand in the system,which makes it difficult to provide direct and effective theoretical guidance for the collection,storage,and supply of wartime aviation spare parts,and to some extent,restricts the supply guarantee capacity of wartime aviation spare parts.Therefore,this article proposes to conduct research on wartime aviation spare parts demand prediction and reserve decision-making models:Firstly,the consumption patterns of wartime aviation spare parts were analyzed,and the influencing factors of wartime aviation spare parts demand were clarified;Secondly,based on factors such as campaign duration,aircraft deployment intensity,aircraft attendance rate,and aviation spare parts failure rate,a wartime available aircraft number prediction model,wartime aviation spare parts demand prediction model,and wartime aviation spare parts reserve decision-making model were established.The model constructed in this article basically conforms to the law of wartime aviation spare parts consumption and can basically meet the demand for aviation spare parts generated during wartime.It can provide a scientific theoretical basis for the collection,storage,and supply of aviation spare parts during wartime.The method proposed in this article has high scientific and practical value,and also has high reference value for predicting the demand for various materials during wartime.