寒潮大风及海冰对北方港口波浪推算的影响

Impact of cold waves,strong winds,and sea ice on wave calculation in northern ports

为了探究冬季极端天气及海况对北方港口波浪推算的影响,以黄骅港为例,建立能够综合考虑海冰和寒潮大风影响的波浪数值模型。与实测值相比,模拟的黄骅港外航道口门处有效波高最大值和平均值分别偏大0.41%和偏小5.46%,且演化趋势基本吻合。结果表明,港内2018年寒潮大浪致灾地点处考虑海冰、强风及波浪绕射与反射影响的有效波高最大值为1.14 m。通过敏感性分析可知,港内波浪推算过程中若忽略寒潮大风的影响,则有效波高严重偏小达73.68%。如考虑海冰的影响,有效波高将比无冰情况偏小8.77%。

In order to investigate the influence of extreme winter weather and sea conditions on the design wave estimation of northern ports,using Huanghua Port as a case study,we build a comprehensive numerical wave model that accounts for the combined effects of sea ice and cold strong winds.The simulated maximum and average significant wave heights at the entrance of the outer channel of Huanghua Port are 0.41%higher and 5.46%lower than the measured,respectively,and the evolution trend is basically consistent.The results show that the maximum significant wave height,considering sea ice,strong winds,and the effects of wave diffraction and reflection,at the location of the disaster caused by the cold wave in 2018 in the harbor,is 1.14 m.Sensitivity analysis reveals that neglecting the influence of cold waves and strong winds during wave estimation within the port leads to a significant underestimation of the maximum significant wave height by 73.68%.In addition,if the effect of sea ice is considered,the significant wave height will be 8.77%lower compared to ice-free conditions.