我国金融和实体经济耦合协调的时空演变研究

A Study on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution of the Coupling and Coordination of China's Finance and Real Economy

本文基于2011—2022年面板数据,运用熵权法、耦合协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数分解法和核密度估计,研究我国30个省份的金融和实体经济协调水平、时空格局及收敛性。研究发现:(1)我国金融和实体经济两系统呈现东高西低的发展特征;两系统的耦合协调类型属于轻度失调发展型。(2)2011—2022年金融与实体经济耦合协调度的整体空间差异呈现波动下降趋势。区域内差异以及超变密度对空间差异的贡献率低。东部与西部地区的区域间基尼系数最大,东部地区的耦合协调度差异最大。(3)金融与实体经济耦合协调水平高的省份占比增加;全国整体以及中、西部地区的内部差异呈增长趋势,而东北和东部地区的内部差异有所缩小。(4)我国金融与实体经济的变异系数呈现下降趋势,σ收敛特征明显,且与Dagum基尼系数的结果相近。

Based on the panel data from 2011 to 2022, this paper uses entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method and kernel density estimation to study the coordination level, temporal and spatial pattern and convergence of financial and real economy in 30 provinces of China. The results show that:(1) China's financial and real economy systems are characterized by high development in the East and low development in the West;the coupling coordination type of the two systems belongs to the mild maladjustment development type.(2) From 2011 to 2022, the overall spatial difference of the coupling coordination degree between finance and the real economy showed a downward trend of fluctuation. The contribution rate of regional differences and hyper variable density to spatial differences is low. The Gini coefficient between the eastern and western regions is the largest, and the coupling coordination degree difference between the eastern regions is the largest.(3) The proportion of provinces with high level of coupling and coordination between finance and real economy increased;the internal differences of the whole country and the central and western regions are increasing, while the internal differences of the northeast and eastern regions are narrowing.(4) The coefficient of variation of China's finance and real economy shows a downward trend, and the σ convergence is obvious, and the result is similar to that of dagum Gini coefficient.