政府债券与城投债对城市全要素生产率影响研究——基于289个城市面板数据

The Impact of Government Bonds and Urban Construction Investment Bonds on Total Factor Productivity——An analytical study based on panel data of 289 cities

近年来,虽然对地方政府债务管理力度持续加强,但总量难以在短期内大幅下降,因此如何优化债务结构,减少政府债务对高质量发展的影响,成为一个重要的研究课题。选取2014—2022年中国289个城市面板数据,实证分析政府债券与城投债对城市全要素生产率抑制效应的差异性及其作用机制。研究发现:政府债务会产生资本挤占、错配、价格效应,进而抑制城市全要素生产率,但这种抑制效应主要源于城投债,而地方政府债券的抑制效应相对较弱。因此,在控制地方政府债务总量的同时,可以通过降低城投债规模,缓解政府债务对全要素生产率及经济增长的制约。研究为我国建立同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理机制提供了新的启示。

In recent years,despite continuous efforts to strengthen local government debt management,the total debt amount has remained stubbornly high.Consequently,optimizing the debt structure and mitigating the impact of government debt on high-quality development have become a crucial research topic.This study empirically analyzes the differences between and the mechanisms of the inhibitory effects of government bonds and urban construction investment bonds on urban total factor productivity,using panel data from 289 Chinese cities between 2014 and 2022.Our findings reveal that government debt can lead to capital crowding out,misallocation and price effects,thereby inhibiting urban total factor productivity.However,these inhibitory effects primarily stem from urban construction investment bonds,whereas the impact of local government bonds is relatively mild.Therefore,while maintaining control over the total amount of local government debt,reducing the scale of urban construction investment bonds can help alleviate their constraints on total factor productivity and economic growth.This study offers valuable insights for China to develop a government debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development goals.