农业社会化服务对耕地撂荒的抑制效应——理论分析与实证检验

The inhibition effect of agricultural services oncropland abandonment:Theoretical analysis and empirical tests

【目的】农业社会化服务对耕地撂荒的影响尚无定论。因此,亟须厘清农业社会化服务与耕地撂荒的关系,以期为进一步缓解耕地撂荒提供参考。【方法】本文构建农业社会化服务影响耕地撂荒的理论模型,基于2014—2018年中国劳动力动态调查数据,运用固定效应模型和双重差分模型,从村庄和农户层面检验农业社会化服务对耕地显性撂荒和隐性撂荒的影响与作用机制。【结果】①农业社会化服务对耕地显性撂荒具有显著的抑制效应;农业社会化服务对耕地集约利用具有显著的促进效应,抑制了耕地隐性撂荒。②相较于非粮食主产区,抑制效应在粮食主产区内表现明显;同时,相较于农业劳动力替代程度低的农业社会化服务,农业劳动力替代程度高的农业社会化服务对耕地撂荒的抑制效应更强。③提高劳动生产率是农业社会化服务抑制耕地撂荒的主要作用机制,农户购买农业社会化服务后,劳动生产率提高17.9%。【结论】农业社会化服务对耕地撂荒具有抑制效应,且呈现出区域和服务内容的异质性;农业社会化服务通过提高劳动生产率来抑制耕地撂荒。因此,应完善耕地保护制度设计,严格和强化耕地用途管制、鼓励和支持土地整治项目;同时,加快培育专业化农业社会化服务组织,提升服务能力、拓宽服务领域;另外,要注重区域差异,因地制宜、分类施策,有针对性地治理耕地撂荒问题。

[Objective]No conclusions can yet be drawn from previous studies on the effect of agricultural services on cropland abandonment.Therefore,there is an urgent need to clarify the relationship between agricultural services and cropland abandonment.This will provide valuable insights for effectively mitigating the issue of cropland abandonment in the future.[Methods]This study constructed a theoretical model to examine the impact of agricultural services on cropland abandonment.The analysis was based on data from the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey from 2014 to 2018.Fixed effect model and difference-in-differences model were employed to test the effect of agricultural services on both visible and invisible cropland abandonments at the village and farming household levels and mechanism.[Results]The study found that:(1)Agricultural services had a significant negative impact on the visible cropland abandonment;agricultural services had a significant positive impact on the intensive use,thus alleviating the invisible cropland abandonment.(2)Compared with non-grain producing areas,the inhibition effect of agricultural services on cropland abandonment is more obvious in grain producing areas;and compared with agricultural services with a low degree of substitution of agricultural labor,agricultural services with a high degree of substitution of agricultural labor had a stronger inhibition effect on cropland abandonment,which led to the inconsistency between theory and reality.(3)Increasing labor productivity was the main mechanism of agricultural services to inhibit cropland abandonment.After farmers purchased agricultural services,labor productivity increased by 17.9%.[Conclusion]Agricultural services had significant inhibition effect on cropland abandonment and exhibited heterogeneity regionally and in terms of service content;Agricultural services discouraged cropland abandonment by increasing labor productivity.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the design of the cropland protection system,enforce stricter control over cropland use,and encourage and support land consolidation projects.Efforts should be made to accelerate the development of specialized agricultural service organizations,enhance their service capacity,and expand their service coverage.It is also important to consider regional differences and implement targeted measures that are tailored to local conditions in order to effectively address the problem of abandoned cropland.