电子商务发展水平的影响因素及经济效应研究

Research on the Influencing Factors and Economic Effects of the Development Level of E-commerce

本文基于2015—2022年中国内地30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,实证检验电子商务发展的影响因素及其经济效应,西藏地区数据缺失较为严重,故排除在外。结果表明:(1)电子商务发展存在一定的自我调节机制,基础设施水平改善、消费水平提高、政府支出增加都能在不同程度上对电子商务发展具有显著的促进作用。(2)现阶段居民消费水平的提高对电子商务发展的促进作用是最明显的。(3)电子商务发展显著地促进了经济增长,但电子商务发展对经济增长的影响不是简单的促进作用,经济增长水平越高,越能促进电子商务发展,但同时电子商务的发展也会在一定程度上带来一定的负外部性,诸如实体经济的不景气、就业困难等问题,从而阻碍经济增长,且不同地区电子商务发展对经济增长的作用有所差别。根据这些结论本文提出相关政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(cities and autonomous regions)in Chinese mainlandfrom 2015 to 2022,this paper empirically tests the factors affecting the development of e-commerce and its economic effects.The results show that there are certain self-regulatory mechanisms in e-commerce development,with the improvement of infrastructure and the increase of consumption level.The increase of government expenditure can significantly promote the development of e-commerce in different degrees.Besides,currently the improvement of residents'consumption level has the most obvious promoting effect on the development of e-commerce.And finally,the development of e-commerce has significantly promoted economic growth,while the impact of e-commerce development on economic growth is not simple.The higher the level of economic growth,the more it can promote the development of e-commerce.At the same time,the development of e-commerce will also bring some negative externalities to a certain extent,such as the depression of the real economy and employment difficulties,thus hindering economic growth,and the development of e-commerce in different regions has different effects on economic growth.According to these conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.