黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全驱动力分析及动态演变

Analysis of driving forces and dynamic evolution of water ecological security in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin

构建基于W-SENCE(以水为主线的经济-社会-自然复合生态系统)视阈下的流域水生态安全评价指标体系,利用2003—2022年黄河流域甘肃段统计数据,运用熵权-TOPSIS法、M-K分析法、ARIMA模型,剖析黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全的驱动力和动态演变趋势。结果表明:(1)径污比、水库调蓄能力、林牧渔用水量占比、农田灌溉用水量占比是流域水生态安全的主要驱动因子,社会子系统和生态子系统是水生态安全的关键驱动因素。(2)从空间差异来看,黄河流域甘肃段水生态安全状况整体较差(<Ⅲ级),上游始终好于下游,兰州至河口是重点调控区。(3)从动态演变来看,水生态安全状况2013年左右发生突变,此后呈好转态势,龙羊峡至兰州段是关注重点。(4)2023—2034年,水生态安全状况稳中有进,水生态安全风险中下游>中上游,兰州至河口是重点调控区。

This study constructed a water ecological security evaluation index system based on the W-SENCE perspective(a complex ecosystem integrating economy,society,and nature with water as the mainstay).Using statistical data from the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2022,the Entropy-TOPSIS method,M-K analysis,and ARIMA model were used to analyze the driving forces and dynamic evolution trends of water ecological security in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.The following results were obtained:(1)The ratio of runoff to pollution;reservoir regulation and storage capacity;the proportion of water consumption for forestry,animal husbandry,and fisheries;and the proportion of water consumption for farmland irrigation were the major driving factors for water ecological security in the basin.The social subsystem and ecological subsystem were the key driving factors for water ecological security.(2)From the perspective of spatial differences,the overall water ecological security status in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin was relatively poor(<Grade III),with the upstream consistently performing better than the downstream.The area from Lanzhou to Hekou is a key regulation zone.(3)In terms of dynamic evolution,a mutation occurred in the water ecological security status around 2013,followed by an improving trend.The section from Longyangxia to Lanzhou was a focus of attention.(4)The water ecological security status will continue to improve steadily from 2023 to 2034,with the risk of water ecological security being higher in the middle and downstream than in the middle and upstream.The area from Lanzhou to Hekou remains a key regulation zone.