新疆耕地系统韧性时空变化特征及其分区划定

Characteristics of spatial and temporal changes and zoning of cultivated land resilience in Xinjiang

本文围绕韧性发生的过程和耕地系统提升韧性所要具备的能力,建立了一套适用于干旱区的耕地系统韧性评价指标体系,旨在将韧性理论应用到耕地系统中,评价新疆耕地系统韧性以及20 a间时空演变特征,提出在韧性视角下新疆耕地可持续利用的政策建议。以栅格网格为尺度,使用综合指数法对新疆耕地系统韧性水平进行测算。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年新疆耕地面积呈增加态势,其主要分布在水资源丰沛的区域;(2)新疆耕地系统韧性有小幅度的提升,但整体水平仍偏低,且空间异质性强,20 a间高值区呈现向南部转移的趋势,且主要分布于大河冲积形成的河谷三角洲地带;(3)20 a间新疆耕地系统的抵御能力和适应能力均有所提高,但转型能力有所下降。在空间分布上,南疆地区耕地的抵御能力和转型能力不断提高,适应能力基本呈现“北高南低”的分布格局。由于影响各地区耕地系统韧性的因素不同,因此,根据2020年耕地系统韧性值将耕地利用系统分为5个分区,并针对每个分区面临的问题,提出了具体提升方案,为今后区域内的耕地可持续利用发展提供参考。

Based on the occurrence of resilience and the ability of cultivated land system to improve resilience,this study established a set of cultivated land system resilience evaluation index systems applicable to arid areas,with an aim to apply the resilience theory to the cultivated land system,evaluate the cultivated land system resilience and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of Xinjiang in the past 20 years,and propose policy suggestions on the sustainable use of cultivated land in Xinjiang from the perspective of resilience.Using grid as a scale,the resilience level of the cultivated land system in Xinjiang was measured using the comprehensive index method.Results showed that(1)The cultivated land area of Xinjiang increased during 2000-2020,and it was primarily distributed in areas with abundant water resources.(2)The resilience of the cultivated land system in Xinjiang increased slightly,but the overall level was still low,and the spatial heterogeneity was strong.In the past 20 years,the area with high value exhibited a trend of shifting to the south,primarily distributed in the valley delta area formed by the alluvial river.(3)In the past 20 years,the resilience and adaptability of the Xinjiang cultivated land system have increased,but the transformation ability has decreased.Regarding spatial distribution,the resilience and transformation ability of the cultivated land system in southern Xinjiang continuously improved,and the adaptive ability basically demonstrated a distribution pattern of“high in the north and low in the south.”Due to the different factors affecting the resilience of the cultivated land system in different regions,the cultivated land-use system was divided into five zones according to the resilience of the cultivated land system in 2020,and the specific optimization plan was proposed to improve the corresponding ability.