铁路客运价格指数的编制与实证研究

Compilation and Empirical Study of Railway Passenger Price Index

开展铁路客运价格指数编制研究,综合反映铁路客运价格的变动趋势,对于国家层面的经济运行调控、企业层面的经营管理决策都具有重要的现实意义。基于铁路客运价格指数编制理论架构,围绕数据调查、基期确定、产品抽样、指数计算等关键环节,以京沪高速铁路线路为例进行实证分析。通过多方案试算对比的方式,论证样本选取的代表性、抽样方式的有效性、指数计算的科学性;通过与客运票价、消费者价格指数等进行对比,验证指数编制结果的合理性。研究发现,选取收入与发送量双重指标提取样本,能使样本的选择更趋合理。同时,铁路客运价格指数呈现出典型的周期性波动特点,与铁路客流变化的匹配程度不高,表明铁路客运价格精细化管理还待深入。

The study on the compilation of the railway passenger price index comprehensively reflects the changing trend in railway passenger prices,which has important practical significance for economic operation regulation at the national level and management decisions at the enterprise level.Based on the theoretical framework of railway passenger transport index compilation,this paper focused on data survey,base period determination,product sampling,index calculation and other specific steps,and carried out an empirical analysis of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway lines.The representativeness of sample selection,the effectiveness of the sampling method,and the scientificity of index calculation were demonstrated by multi-scheme trial calculation comparison.In comparison with passenger fare and consumer price index,the rationality of price index compilation was verified.It is found that the selection of samples by the dual indexes of income and delivery can make the selection of samples more reasonable.At the same time,the railway passenger price index shows a typical periodic fluctuation,and the matching degree with the change of railway passenger flow is low,which suggests that the fine management of the railway passenger price index still needs to be strengthened.