基于改进CRITIC云模型的铁路旅客运输安全评价研究

Safety Evaluation of Railway Passenger Transport Based on Improved CRITIC Cloud Model

开展铁路旅客运输安全评价是确保旅客运输安全,提升旅客出行满意度的重要手段。围绕影响旅客出行安全的5个维度构建铁路旅客运输安全评价指标体系,涵盖16个评价指标,通过阐述云模型的评价原理,并仿真模拟了云滴数从1 000逐步增长至10 000的云图;进一步论证改进CRITIC方法确定指标权重的过程,并与传统的CRITIC方法进行比较,分析了改进完善的优点;提出基于改进的CRITIC法和云模型开展铁路旅客运输安全评价步骤。通过算例对该模型进行了验证,计算评价指标的权重及要素层、指标层的评价云重要参数,由此得出铁路旅客运输安全评价云。研究结果表明,基于改进的CRITIC法和云模型有着较强的可行性与适用性,可进一步丰富完善铁路旅客运输安全的评价方法,评价结果也为监管部门提供一定的理论参考与实证依据。

Conducting railway passenger transportation safety evaluation is important for passenger transport safety and travel satisfaction.From five dimensions affecting travel safety,this paper constructed an indicator system that covered 16 indicators of safety evaluation of railway passenger transport.It elaborated on the evaluation principle of the cloud model and simulated a cloud image where the number of cloud drops gradually increased from 1000 to 10000.Then,the process of determining indicator weights by the improved CRITIC method was discussed and compared with the traditional one to analyze the advantages of the improved version.Then,it proposed steps for evaluating railway passenger transport safety based on the improved CRITIC method and cloud model.The model was validated through a set of examples.The weights of evaluation indicators and important parameters of the evaluation cloud in the element layer and indicator layer were calculated,resulting in the evaluation cloud for railway passenger transport safety.The research results indicate that the improved CRITIC method and cloud model have strong feasibility and applicability,enriching the evaluation methods for railway passenger transport safety.The evaluation results can provide theoretical reference and empirical basis for regulatory authorities.