城市河流洪水应急响应评估与优化:以茅洲河流域120急救为例

Assessment and optimization of urban emergency response in river flood scenarios:A case study of 120 emergency services in the Maozhou River Basin

【目的】受气候变化与城市化的双重影响,频繁发生的城市洪涝灾害对城市应急救援服务的效率提出了新的要求。构建流域尺度的应急服务优化框架,评估医疗应急可达性在不同河流洪水情景下的状态,确定新增临时应急救援点的位置,并明确养老院等关键基础设施获得医疗应急服务的最优线路具有重要意义。【方法】选取洪涝多发的深圳市茅洲河流域为研究区域,利用水文模型模拟不同重现期下的河流淹没结果,结合最短路径分析与LSCP位置集覆盖模型,确定临时应急救援点的位置与数量。【结果】结果表明:随着降雨重现期的增长,洪涝对交通的影响逐渐显现,但河流洪水的淹没主要分布在河道附近2~3 km,对整个区域的影响有限;降雨强度、交通运行速度以及现有医院的位置共同决定了不同地区获取医疗应急服务的时间与新增临时应急救援点的数量;河流北部地区的养老院获得医疗应急服务的出行线路随着降雨重现期的增长而改变,在降雨重现期为100 a一遇时无法获得医疗应急服务。【结论】研究表明:结合洪涝情景的应急服务设施优化与应急线路识别有利于增强洪涝场景下的城市应急救援能力。研究结果可为茅洲河地区布设医疗应急设施提供建设参考。

[Objective]Due to the dual impacts of climate change and urbanization,frequent urban flood disasters pose new challenges to the efficiency of urban emergency rescue services.Constructing a watershed-scale emergency service optimization framework,assessing the state of healthcare emergency accessibility under different river flood scenarios,determining the location of additional temporary emergency rescue points,and clarifying the optimal routes for nursing homes to access healthcare services.[Methods]The frequently flooded Maozhou River Basin in Shenzhen was selected as the study area.Utilizing hydrological models to simulate river flooding under different return periods and combining shortest path analysis with the LSCP(Location Set Covering Problem)model,the location and number of temporary emergency rescue points were determined.[Results]The results reveal that as the rainfall return period increases,the impact of flooding on traffic gradually intensifies.However,river flooding mainly affects areas within 2~3 km of the river,limiting its impact on the entire region.The intensity of rainfall,traffic operation speed,and the location of existing hospitals jointly determine the time required for different areas to access healthcare emergency services and the number of additional temporary emergency rescue points needed.Travel routes to healthcare emergency services for nursing homes in the northern part of the river basin change with increasing rainfall return periods,and at a 100-year return period,these nursing homes are unable to access healthcare emergency services.[Conclusion]The study demonstrates that integrating emergency service facility optimization and emergency route identification in flood scenarios enhances urban emergency rescue capabilities in flood situations.The findings provide a reference for the deployment of medical emergency facilities in the Maozhou River area.