2014—2021年余姚市甲状腺癌发病与死亡特征及趋势分析

Status and trend of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in Yuyao, 2014-2021

目的 分析2014—2021年浙江省余姚市甲状腺癌发病和死亡数据,了解户籍居民发病和死亡情况及变化趋势,为有关部门制定科学防控策略提供参考。方法 收集2014—2021年余姚市户籍居民甲状腺癌发病、死亡监测数据,计算粗发病(死亡)率、标化发病(死亡)率、年龄别发病(死亡)率、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积发病(死亡)率、潜在减寿年数(potential years of life lost,PYLL)、平均减寿年数(average years of life lost,AYLL)、潜在减寿年数率(potential years of life lost rate,PYLLR)等指标,计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)并分析其变化趋势。结果 2014—2021年累计报告新发甲状腺癌2 760例,发病率41.26/10万,中标发病率37.76/10万,世标发病率28.34/10万,35~64岁截缩率63.67/10万,0~74岁累积率2.64%;女性发病率(63.39/10万)高于男性(18.50/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=816.902,P<0.01);粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率均呈上升趋势(AAPC=20.240%、21.114%、20.672%,t=7.972、7.459、7.233,P<0.05);累计报告死亡53例,粗死亡率0.79/10万,中标死亡率0.43/10万,世标死亡率0.31/10万,35~64岁截缩率0.33/10万,0~74岁累积率0.04%;男女性别间死亡率差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=0.341,P=0.559);粗死亡率、中标死亡率和世标死亡率变化趋势差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);不同年龄发病率呈单峰分布,50~<55岁组达发病率峰值(75.72/10万);死亡率随年龄增长呈上升趋势,80~<85岁组达死亡率高峰(5.03/10万);甲状腺癌死亡所致PYLL为300.00人年,AYLL为5.66人年,PYLLR为0.05‰。结论 余姚市甲状腺癌发病率呈快速上升趋势,死亡率无明显变化,需要对其深入研究,开展有针对性的防治工作。

Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Yuyao from 2014 to 2021,to grasp the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and their changing trend among registered residents,so as to provide scientific evidence for relevant authorities to formulate scientific prevention and control strategies.Methods The cancer registry data related to thyroid cancer and death registry data of registered residents in Yuyao between 2014 and 2021 were collected to estimate the crude incidence (death) rate,standardized incidence(death) rate,age-specific incidence (death) rate,truncated rate for 35-64 years age group,cumulative incidence(death) rate of 0-74 years old,potential years of life lost (PYLL),average years of life lost (AYLL),and potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR),and to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) for analyzing the trend of the indicators.Results From 2014 to 2021,there were 2 760 new cases of thyroid cancer reported in Yuyao,with a incidence rate of 41.26/100 000.The age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) was 37.76/100 000,the age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population (ASIRW) was 28.34/100 000,the truncated rate for 35-64 years age group was 63.67/100 000,and the cumulative rate for 0-74 years was 2.64%.The incidence rate in females (63.39/100 000) was statistically significantly higher than that in males (18.50/100 000)(χ^(2)=816.902,P<0.001).The crude incidence rate,ASIRC and ASIRW were all increasing in the study period (AAPC=20.240%,21.114%,20.672%,t=7.972,7.459,7.233,P<0.05).Totally 53 deaths were reported,with a crude mortality rate of 0.79/100 000,age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASMRC) of 0.43/100 000,and agestandardized mortality rate by world standard population (ASMRW) of 0.31/100 000.The truncated morality for35-64 years age group was 0.33/100 000,and cumulative mortality for 0-74 years was 0.04%.There was no statistically significant difference in mortality between male and female (χ^(2)=0.341,P=0.559).There was no statistically significant changing trend in the study period for crude mortality rate,ASMRC and ASMRW (P>0.05).The incidence rate across different age groups showed a single peak at 50-<55 years (75.72/100 000).Mortality rate increased with age,peaked in the 80-<85 years age group (5.03/100 000).PYLL caused by death from thyroid cancer was 300.00 person-years,AYLL was 5.66 person-years,and PYLLR was 0.05‰.Conclusions The incidence rate of thyroid cancer in Yuyao,is rising rapidly,but the mortality rate has not changed significantly.It is necessary to conduct further research and carry out targeted prevention and control for this cancer.