乡村转型发展对人口迁移吸引力的影响——基于浙江省调查研究

The Impact of Rural Transformation Development on the Attractiveness of Population Migration:Based on the Investigation of Zhejiang Province

“人口要素”是挖掘农业农村潜力、促进乡村转型发展的主体,科学认知乡村转型发展对人口迁移的影响以及优化城乡人口发展格局、实现乡村振兴具有重要意义。文章基于2020年浙江省乡村地域人口微观调研数据,探讨了乡村转型发展对人口迁移吸引力的影响因素及其作用机制。结果表明:(1)乡村转型发展、迁移后社会融入程度、乡村就业和创业的优势和局限性是影响乡村地域人口迁入与回流的关键因素,但乡村产业发展类型对人口回流的影响并不显著。(2)乡村转型发展对人口迁移吸引力的作用机制为“经济转型、社会转型和空间转型发展-人地业优化-乡村吸引力提升-人口迁移”。

The demographic element is pivotal in unleashing the potential of agriculture and rural areas and fostering rural transformation development.Understanding the impact of rural transformation development on population migration is crucial for optimizing urban-rural population development patterns and achieving rural revitalization.This paper,drawing on micro-level demographic survey data from rural areas in Zhejiang Province in 2020,investigates factors influencing the attractiveness of population migration during rural transformation and their underlying mechanisms.The findings indicate that key factors affecting population influx and return to rural areas include the development of rural transformation,the degree of social integration after the migration,and advantages and limitations of rural employment and entrepreneurship.However,the type of rural industrial development has no significant impact on population return.Moreover,the mechanism of attractiveness of population migration on rural transformation development operates through a sequence of economic transformation,social and spatial transformation development,optimization of population-land-industry,enhancement of rural attractiveness and population migration.