基于差异供给与国际比较的基础教育教师需求预测

Forecasting Demand for Basic Education Teachers Based on the Thinking of Differential Supply and International Comparison

基于差异供给与国际比较思维,依据基础教育各学段发展特点,参考国际发达国家情况,利用人口统计数据与教育统计数据,对2023—2035年我国基础教育学龄人口进行预测,发现在此期间我国基础教育不同学段、不同地区的学龄人口具有不同的发展趋势,各学段将面临不同的教师需求。对此,应建立学龄人口动态监预测系统,以系统思维整合现有教师资源的同时,加快构建教师转岗与退出制度,以应对学龄人口变动的新形势。

Based on the thinking of differential supply and international comparison,according to the characteristics of the development of various school segments of basic education,and with reference to the situation of developed countries,this study utilizes population data and education statistics,to forecast the school-age population of basic education in China from 2023 to 2035.It is found that the school-age population of China's basic education in different school segments and different regions has different development trends during this period and that different school segments will face different teacher demands.In this regard,a dynamic monitoring and forecasting system for the school-age population should be set up,while integrating the existing teacher resources with a systematic mindset,we should speed up the construction of a system for transferring and withdrawing teachers to cope with the new situation of the school-age population change.