地缘政治关系的贸易效应:来自我国西南边境地区与东盟国家的证据

Trade Effects of Geopolitical Relations:Evidence from the Southwest Border Region of China and ASEAN Countries

本文基于事件数据分析法,探讨中国—东盟国家间地缘政治关系对面向东盟的我国西南边境地区出口贸易的影响。实证分析结果显示,地缘政治关系对双边贸易影响显著,且存在区位异质性,即对非毗邻国家的影响高于毗邻国家;RCEP协定的实施能够缓解地缘政治冲击带来的影响。在国际贸易方面,西南边境地区应注重风险防范和应对机制建设,制定灵活的贸易政策和投资策略,以应对地缘政治关系变化带来的不确定性;在区域合作方面,西南边境地区应充分发挥地缘优势、区位优势和资源优势,构建基于区域互嵌的价值链和供应链专业化分工体系,在RCEP框架内深化与伙伴国的双边或多边贸易联系,以对冲地缘政治风险对双边贸易流动的影响。

Based on event data analysis method,this paper explores the impact of geopolitical relations between China and ASEAN countries on bilateral trade flows.The empirical analysis results indicate that geopolitical relations have a significant impact on bilateral trade,and there is regional heterogeneity,that is,the impact on non-neighboring countries is higher than that of neighboring countries.The implementation of the RCEP agreement could ease the impact of geopolitical shocks.In terms of international trade,the southwest border area should pay attention to risk prevention and response mechanism construction,formulate flexible trade policies and investment strategies,so as to cope with the uncertainty brought about by the change of geopolitical relations.In terms of regional cooperation,the southwest border region should sufficiently utilize its geographical,regional and resource advantages,and build a value chain and supply chain specialization system based on regional interconnection.It should deepen bilateral or multilateral trade ties with partner countries within the framework of the RCEP so as to counterbalance the impact of geopolitical risks on bilateral trade flows.