旅游发展影响经济增长的动态新型城镇化门限效应

The Dynamic New Urbanization Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on China’s Economic Growth

将新型城镇化纳入旅游业导向型经济增长研究框架,能够有效拓展对经济增长决定因素的认识视域。文章在量化测度旅游业与新型城镇化综合指数基础上,基于中国2004—2019年省际面板数据,通过构建能够捕捉非线性不对称动态因素的面板门限回归模型,并使用允许门限变量和解释变量同时内生的一阶差分矩估计法,实证检验旅游业对经济增长的新型城镇化门限效应。结果表明,中国旅游业与经济增长之间因新型城镇化水平不同而呈现具有显著双重门限特征的非线性关系,并且旅游业对经济增长的影响随新型城镇化跨越门限值而具备边际效用递增特性。因此,文章认为,增进旅游业与新型城镇化耦合协同,充分发挥新型城镇化在旅游业影响经济增长过程中的渠道作用,能够显著提升旅游业的经济增长效应。

Incorporating new urbanization into the research framework of tourism-led growth can effectively expand the horizon of understanding of the determinants of economic growth.This study constructs the dynamic panel threshold regression model addressing an important issue of modeling nonlinear asymmetric dynamics based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2019 in China through the quantitative analysis of the comprehensive index of tourism and new urbanization,and uses the firstdifferenced generalized method of moments estimator allowing both threshold variable and regressors to be endogenous to empirically examine the threshold effect of new urbanization on tourism and growth.The results show that,there exists a non-linear relationship between China’s tourism and economic growth with significant dual-threshold characteristics due to the different levels of new urbanization,and the impact of tourism on economic growth has the characteristic of increasing marginal utility as new urbanization crosses the threshold.In this regard,this study suggests that the economic growth effect of tourism could be significantly enhanced via deepening the synergy mechanism between tourism and new urbanization,and giving full play to the role of new urbanization in the process of tourism influencing economic growth.The marginal contributions of this paper are reflected in the following aspects:firstly,this study constructs a ternary analytical framework containing tourism,new urbanization and economic growth,and focuses on the threshold effect of new urbanization on the tourism-oriented economic growth hypothesis,which not only enriches the research system of the tourism-led growth hypothesis,but also broadens the research in the field of economic consequences of new urbanization.Secondly,in terms of content,this paper jointly extends the nonlinear model estimation approach developed by Hansen,Caner and Hansen to dynamic panel data models that allow for endogenous threshold and covariate variables,specifically,by introducing a nonlinear dynamic panel threshold regression model that takes into account the dynamics and endogeneity of the model,and then simultaneously captures new urbanization development heterogeneity,and then incorporating it into the framework of the nonlinear dynamic model of tourism and economic growth,and using new urbanization,which may be endogenous,as a threshold variable,to empirically test the nonlinear dynamic threshold effect of new urbanization on tourism affecting economic growth by identifying the threshold characteristics of new urbanization that affect economic growth.Finally,the purpose of this paper is to explore the inherent“black box”of the non-linear mechanism of the relationship between tourism and economic growth in the context of the new urbanization strategy based on dynamic thinking,with a view to revealing the process of the impact of tourism on economic growth from the perspective of the new urbanization,and especially to understand the objective effects of the impact of tourism industry on economic growth in the different stages of the new urbanization,and to explore the optimal policies and growth paths of tourism development,to achieve efficient economic growth effect of tourism.The conclusions of this study provide important policy implications for enhancing the economic growth effects of industry-urban integration,especially the role of new urbanization as an indirect channel for tourism to influence economic growth.On one hand,it is necessary to change the stereotypical understanding of the linear relationship between tourism and economic growth in a timely manner,and it is not only necessary to shift the above-mentioned academic vision to a more general non-linear framework,so as to provide a new perspective for analyzing the change pattern of the economic growth effect of tourism in the context of the new urbanization strategy.On the other hand,the new urbanization strategy should be promoted in depth to comprehensively improve the quality of urbanization development.While pushing the new urbanization process across the threshold,the coupling and coordination mechanism between tourism development and new urbanization should be further enhanced,especially the tourism sector should focus on enhancing the absorption capacity of the innovative knowledge spillover released by the new urbanization construction.