高龄髋部骨折患者手术后医院感染预测模型构建与经济负担评价

Construction of a prediction model for postoperative infection in elderly patients with hip fracture and analysis of economic burden

目的构建高龄髋部骨折患者手术后医院感染预测模型并分析其经济负担,为临床防控方案的制定提供参考和依据。方法选取2017年1月1日-2023年5月31日在某院接受髋部骨折手术治疗的627例高龄患者为研究对象。按7∶3比例将患者随机分为建模组与验证组,利用建模组数据构建logistic回归预测模型,并以受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评价模型的区分度与一致性。采用1∶1倾向评分匹配(PSM)分析患者手术后医院感染的直接经济负担。结果高龄髋部骨折患者手术后医院感染发病率为12.1%,以肺部感染最常见(占52.6%);logistic回归分析表明,男性、高龄、围手术期意识障碍、美国麻醉医师协会(ASA)分级Ⅳ级、清蛋白水平低、入住重症监护病房(ICU)是患者手术后医院感染的独立危险因素(均P<0.05);建模组和验证组预测手术后医院感染具有良好的区分度与一致性。患者手术后医院感染的直接经济负担为7927.4元,其中以西药费负担最重(3139.7元);医院感染可延长患者住院时间3.6 d。结论手术后医院感染加重患者经济负担,本研究构建的列线图模型能较好地预测患者手术后医院感染风险,可为临床早期识别高危患者并采取针对性防治措施提供依据。

Objective To construct a prediction model for postoperative healthcare-associated infection(HAI)in elderly patients with hip fracture,analyze the economic burden,provide a reference and basis for the development of clinical prevention and control programs.Methods 627 elderly patients who underwent hip fracture surgery in a hospital from January 1,2017 to May 31,2023 were selected as the study subjects.Patients were randomly divided into a modeling group and a validation group at a 7∶3 ratio.A logistic regression prediction model was constructed based on data from the modeling group,the discriminant and consistency of the model were evaluated by receiver ope-rating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test,and the direct economic burden of postoperative HAI in patients was analyzed with 1∶1 propensity score matching(PSM).Results The incidence of postoperative HAI in elderly patients with hip fracture surgery was 12.1%,with pulmonary infection being the most common(52.6%).Logistic regression analysis showed that male,old age,perioperative disturbance of consciousness,gradeⅣof American Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA)classification,low albumin level,and intensive care unit(ICU)admission were all independent risk factors for postoperative HAI in patients(all P<0.05).There was good model discrimination and consistency between the training and validation groups in predicting the risk of postoperative HAI.The direct economic burden of postoperative HAI in patients was 7927.4 Yuan,of which the burden of wes-tern medicine was the largest(3139.7 Yuan).HAI prolonged patients hospitalization time by 3.6 days.Conclusion Postoperative HAI increases the economic burden of patients,the nomogram model constructed in this study can effectively predict the risk of postoperative HAI in patients,which can provide a basis for the early identification,as well as the implementation of targeted preventive and diagnostic measures for high-risk patients in the clinic.