基于风雨综合指数的广东省晚稻台风致灾危险性评估

Typhoon hazard assessment of late rice in Guangdong Province based on comprehensive wind and rain intensity index

利用1995—2022年登陆或影响广东省中南部16个地市的台风过程资料、气象站风雨资料以及晚稻单产数据,建立晚稻减产率测算模型和融合风、雨因子的晚稻台风致灾危险性评估模型,评估广东省中南部16个地市的晚稻台风致灾危险性。结果表明:(1)1995—2022年,每年平均有6.6个台风登陆或影响广东中南部地区,以0.8个·(10a)^(-1)的速率呈波动减少趋势。(2)晚稻减产率测算模型和台风致灾危险性评估模型可较好地反映各地市晚稻单产减产和台风致灾情况,特别是2002、2013、2017、2018年等台风重灾年表现极佳。(3)各地市晚稻生产受台风影响程度不一,其中湛江、阳江、江门、中山、珠海、汕尾是晚稻台风致灾高风险区,茂名、佛山、惠州、揭阳、汕头和潮州为中等风险区,云浮、肇庆、广州和东莞是低风险区。

Based on typhoon process data that made landfall or affected in central and southern Guangdong,wind speed and rainfall data from meteorological stations,record of late rice yield of these cities from 1995 to 2022,a calculation model for yield reduction rate of late rice and a typhoon hazard assessment model of late rice by integrating the wind and rain factors were built to evaluate typhoon hazard of late rice in the 16 cities in the south-central Guangdong Province.The results show that:(1)on average,6.6 typhoons make landfall or affect the central and southern regions of Guangdong Province each year from 1995 to 2022 with a fluctuating decreasing trend at the rate of 0.8 typhoon per decade.(2)The calculation model for yield reduction rate of late rice and the typhoon hazard assessment model of late rice can reflect the reduction of late rice yield and typhoon-induced disasters in various cities,especially in the years of severe typhoon disasters such as 2002,2013,2017,and 2018,which perform exceptionally well.(3)The impact of typhoons on late rice production varies in different cities,with Zhanjiang,Yangjiang,Jiangmen,Zhongshan,Zhuhai,and Shanwei as high-risk areas for typhoon hazard of late rice,Maoming,Foshan,Huizhou,Jieyang,Shantou,and Chaozhou as medium-risk areas,and Yunfu,Zhaoqing,Guangzhou,and Dongguan as low-risk areas.