数字经济发展中流动人口就业技能结构变化:基于多层线性模型的分析

Employment Structure of Migrant in the China's Digital Economy:Based on Multilayer Linear Models Analysis

基于任务偏向型技术进步视角,本文构建了测量就业岗位技能结构的指标,利用2011-2018年流动人口监测数据发现:流动人口就业岗位技能结构呈现单一方向、不同程度向上极化的特征,表现为低技能岗位占比下降,中、高技能岗位占比快速上升,且中等技能岗位增速快于高技能岗位。多层线性模型研究结果表明:第一,教育与数字经济发展是促进流动人口就业技能结构向上极化的重要原因,其中数字经济发展的促进作用超过1/3,并且行业数字化效应大于城市数字化效应;第二,数字经济发展的影响主要体现在行业数字化和城市数字化政策;第三,流动人口就业技能结构向上极化呈现出性别、户籍和所有制差异;第四,数字经济发展增加了受教育流动人口在中等技能岗位的就业份额。本研究不仅丰富了技术进步中就业技能结构变化的经验研究,也拓展了技术进步对移民就业影响的解释,有助于数字经济中更高质量和更公平的劳动力市场建设。

From the perspective of TBTC and following the characteristics of China's labor market,this paper constructs a skill structure index for jobs.Using China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2011 to 2018,it is found that the skill structure of jobs for Migrants shows a single direction and varying degrees of upgrading,characterized by a decrease in the proportion of low skilled jobs,a rapid increase in the proportion of mid and high skilled jobs,and a lower growth rate of high skilled jobs compared to mid skilled jobs.Considering individual characteristics and the digital development,the research results using a multi-layer linear model indicate that:(1)Human capital is an important reason for promoting the upgrading of jobs.The development of digital economy explains one-third of the reasons for the upgrading of jobs,and the digitalization effect of industries is greater than that of cities.Human capital and the digital economy development are important reasons for promoting the upward polarization of the floating population.The development of the digital economy explains more than one-third of the changes,and the digitalization effect of industries is greater than that of cities.(2)The impact of digital economy development is mainly reflected in the digitalization of industries and the implementation of the"Broadband China"policy,while the impact of urban digital development is not significant.(3)The individual impact is mainly manifested in that men and non-agricultural household registration,and state-owned employment all promote the increase of the employment share of high skilled jobs,reflecting the gender feature in the upward polarization of the employment skills structure of the migrant population,as well as the characteristics of"hukou segmentation"and"ownership segmentation".(4)With the development of the digital economy,the educated population has further expanded their share of employment in intermediate skill positions;With the digitalization of the industry,the employment share of men and non-agricultural registered residence groups in higher skilled jobs has been expanded.