地铁-公交换乘供需匹配评价方法研究——以深圳市为例

Evaluation Method for Supply and Demand Matching in Subway-Bus Transfers:A Case Study of Shenzhen City

实现轨道交通和常规公交2个系统的便捷换乘,是推动轨道交通与常规公交网络之间融合发展、打造多模式便捷公共交通系统的基础。本文以深圳市为例,结合手机信令数据和公交刷卡数据,识别轨道交通和常规公交的换乘特征,进而估算各轨道站点的换乘潜在需求量及其换乘需求缺口,同时基于熵权-TOPSIS模型对各轨道站点换乘供给条件进行了评价,结合换乘供需匹配的评价结果与换乘需求缺口,对轨道站点提出了相应的优化策略。研究发现,深圳市地铁-公交换乘潜在需求高的站点多分布在居住人口聚集区附近,中心城区的换乘供需匹配度高,且部分老城区供大于需,但外围站点普遍存在供不应求的情况;从换乘需求缺口来看,部分供应不足但运行高效的站点值得借鉴经验,而那些需求缺口大的低效站点应根据不同的供需匹配情况进行针对性的提升优化。结果表明:基于多源数据评估地铁-公交换乘潜在需求与换乘供给水平的匹配情况,并结合换乘需求缺口来制定换乘优化策略,对于提升地铁与公交换乘服务的精细化管理水平具有重要的参考意义。

Realizing convenient transfers between subway and regular bus systems is fundamental to advancing the integration and development of these two transportation networks,which is crucial for constructing a multimodal and accessible public transportation system.This paper takes Shenzhen as a case study and innovatively combines mobile phone signal data with IC card data to identify the transfer characteristics between subway and regular bus systems.These characteristics include temporal and distance aspects,which effectively illustrate the daily travel patterns of transfer passengers.Through a detailed analysis of the overall transfer characteristics,this study establishes a distance threshold to estimate potential transfer demand and the gap in transfer demand at each subway station.Furthermore,this paper uses the Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Model to conduct a preliminary evaluation of the transfer supply conditions at various subway stations.Based on the evaluation results of the matching between transfer supply and demand,as well as the size of the transfer demand gap,this study proposes corresponding optimization strategies for subway stations,providing an effective method for identifying inefficient stations.The research findings indicate that,in Shenzhen,the subway stations with high potential demand for transfers to regular buses are mainly located near densely populated residential areas.The central urban area exhibits a high degree of matching between transfer supply and demand,with some old urban areas experiencing an oversupply due to the well-developed public transportation infrastructure.However,peripheral stations commonly face a situation where demand exceeds supply,necessitating focused attention on improving transfer supply conditions at these sites.Regarding the transfer demand gap,even among subway stations with the same level of transfer supply,variations in the size of the demand gap exist.Stations with insufficient transfer supply but efficient operations offer valuable lessons,while stations with large demand gaps and inefficient operations should be targeted for specific improvements based on their individual supply and demand matching situations.The results demonstrate that evaluating the alignment between potential subwaybus transfer demand and the level of transfer supply using multi-source data,and formulating optimization strategies in conjunction with the transfer demand gap,is of significant importance for enhancing the refined management level of subway and bus transfer services.Overall,the theory and calculation methods of transfer potential demand and transfer demand gap proposed in this study provide a new perspective and reference for transfer research,public transport planning,and urban planning in the field of public transportation.