经济政策不确定性对我国入境旅游的影响及时变效应

The Impact and Time-varying Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China's Inbound Tourism Development

经济政策不确定性已经成为宏观经济波动的重要因素,对我国入境旅游发展产生正负向交替变化的非对称影响。基于计量模型从我国入境旅游的供给方和需求方视角,考察我国经济政策不确定性和全球经济政策不确定性对我国1997—2021年省域层面的入境旅游流量和收入的影响及时变效应。研究发现:全球经济政策不确定性与我国经济政策不确定性对我国入境旅游收入和流量均独立存在负面影响,且前者更为显著。不确定性事件的发生对我国入境旅游收入在响应方向、强度和时长方面均具有显著差异性,且随着时间的推移逐渐减弱。

Economic policy uncertainty has become an important factor in generating volatility in the macroeconomy,and this increase in uncertainty expectation volatility has an asymmetric impact on the development of inbound tourism in China with alternating positive and negative changes.Based on TVP-VAR model,this paper examines the impact and time-varying effects of CEPU and GEPU on China's inbound tourism flows and revenues at the provincial level from 1997 to 2021 using stata.Results found that:Both GEPU and CEPU have independent negative effects on China's inbound tourist income and flow,and the former is more significant,while the effect of CEPU becomes positive under the combined effect of both.The increase in international airline openings,inflation rate,and exchange rate have positive effects,while the opposite is true for industrial value added.Different uncertainty events have significant variability on China's inbound tourism revenue in terms of response direction,intensity and duration,and gradually weaken over time.