中国式现代化理念下交通现代化的综合测度与系统结构分析

Comprehensive Measurement and System Structure Analysis of Transportation Modernization under the Concept of Chinese Modernization

交通是中国现代化的开路先锋,中国式现代化赋予了交通现代化更丰富的内涵。为把握中国式交通现代化发展水平和系统状况,在中国式现代化理念导引下,结合供需耦合逻辑从交通基础设施进阶、交通赋能经济社会、交通系统优质发展3个方面构建综合评价指标体系,基于2005年~2021年数据采用熵权-TOPSIS组合模型测度交通现代化水平,并利用耦合度和耦合协调度模型测度分析系统结构情况。研究发现:测度期内交通现代化水平不断提升,总体上可划分为4个阶段,同时3个方面系统指数相对均衡;从系统障碍度来看,交通融合经济社会障碍度平均值相对较高,但从趋势上看交通基础设施进阶障碍度总体呈现下降趋势,交通系统优质发展障碍度则呈现上升趋势;从系统耦合协调度来看,交通系统优质发展内部耦合协调以及其与其他2个子系统的耦合协调相对不足。研究提出:以交通基础设施进阶和质量提升“双螺旋”更好地支撑经济社会发展;把握关键要素,多管齐下破解交通现代化的负向制约;分类施策推动交通区域均衡发展,有效助力共同富裕;秉承人本交通理念,提升交通对物质文明和精神文明相协调的支撑力度。

Transportation is the pioneer of China's modernization,and Chinese path to modernization has endowed transportation modernization with richer connotation.In order to grasp the development level and system status of Chinese style transportation modernization,under the guidance of the concept of Chinese path to modernization,combined with the supply and demand coupling logic,a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed from three aspects including transportation infrastructure upgrading,transportation enabling economy and society,and high-quality development of transportation system.Based on the data from 2005 to 2021,the entropy weight TOPSIS composite model is used to measure the level of transportation modernization,and coupling degree and coupling coordination degree models are used to measure and analyze the system structure.Some useful conclusions are found.Firstly,Chinese transportation modernization has been continuously improved during the measurement period,which can be divided into four stages in general,and the system indexes of three aspects are relatively balanced.Secondly,from the perspective of system obstacle degree,the average value of obstacle degree of transportation enabling economic and social development is relatively high,but from the perspective of the trend,the obstacle degree of advanced development of transportation infrastructure generally shows a downward trend,while the obstacle degree of high-quality development of transportation system shows an upward trend.Thirdly,from the perspective of system coupling and coordination,the internal coupling and coordination of high-quality development of transportation system and its coupling and coordination with other two systems are relatively insufficient.The study concludes that:first,economic and social development should better supported with the double helix of advanced development of transportation infrastructure and quality improvement.Secondly,the key elements should be focused so as to solve the negative constraints in a multi-pronged way.Thirdly,classified policies should be implemented to promote balanced development of transportation regions and effectively promote common prosperity.Finally,the people-oriented transportation concept should be adhered to and to enhance the support of transportation for the coordination of material civilization and spiritual civilization.