信息缺乏下的特色小镇带旅游交通分布预测

Prediction of Tourism Traffic Distribution in Characteristic Town Belt Under the Lack of Information

为合理预测规划升级改造的旅游特色小镇带建成后的旅游交通分布,指导区域路网规划建设,更好地发展区域旅游经济,于规划阶段提出一种特色小镇带旅游交通分布预测方法。基于特色小镇带存在多个交通小区间的出行选择和分布,且缺乏历史数据的特征,该方法设计了SP调查,获取能从微观尺度揭示宏观旅游交通分布特征的参数。利用交通小区的属性划分,结合交通发生点居民对未来特色小镇带旅游情况的估计,预测不同交通小区日均旅游次数。通过旅游出行过程分析,探究旅游前计划游玩特色小镇组合的可能性,并假定以最短路遍历选择组合中的特色小镇作为出行路径,排除潜在多路径的影响,来模拟特色小镇带内居民旅游出行规律。再综合考虑影响居民旅游出行选择的主客观因素,参照重力模型构建了旅游出行的选择概率模型。最后结合出行路径参数矩阵、不同时段的出行比例等因素,将旅游次数转化为各交通小区间的OD出行,建立了特色小镇带未来不同时期不同时段旅游交通分布预测模型。以湖南浏阳河流域特色小镇带为实例,进行了旅游高峰期高峰小时的旅游交通分布预测。预测结果表明:本方法可以对旅游出行过程进行合理描述,具有良好的精度,较好地估计了未来的旅游交通分布,为新建特色小镇带影响区的规划与建设提供了基础依据。

To reasonably predict the tourism traffic distribution after the completion of the planned upgraded tourism characteristic town belt,guide the regional road network planning and construction,and better develop the regional tourism economy,a tourism traffic distribution prediction method for the characteristic town belt is proposed.Based on the characteristics of the existence of multiple traffic intercellular travel options and distributions in the characteristic town belt and the lack of historical data,a SP survey is designed to obtain parameters that can reveal the characteristics of macro tourism traffic distribution from the microscopic scale.The attribute division of traffic cells is used to predict the average daily number of trips in different traffic cells by combining the estimation of the residents of the traffic occurrence point for future tourism in the characteristic town belt.Through the analysis of tourism travel process,the possibility of planning to tour the combination of characteristic town belt before tourism is explored,and the shortest traversal is assumed to select the characteristic town belt in the combination as the travel path,excluding the influence of potential multiple paths,to simulate the tourism travel pattern of residents in the characteristic town belt.Then,considering the subjective and objective factors affecting residents'tourism travel choice,a probability model of tourism travel choice is constructed with reference to the gravity model.Finally,by combining the travel path parameter matrix and the travel ratio of different time periods,the number of trips is transformed into OD trips between each traffic cell,and a prediction model of tourism traffic distribution in different time periods of the characteristic town belt in the future is established.In this paper,the prediction of tourism traffic distribution in peak hours during the peak tourism period is carried out with the example of Hunan Liuyang River basin characteristic town belt.The prediction results show that the method can reasonably describe the tourism travel process with good accuracy and better estimate the future tourism traffic distribution,which provides a basic basis for the planning and construction of the impact area of the new characteristic town belt.