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家庭抚养比与女性生育意愿

Household Dependency Ratio and Women′s Fertility Willingness
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摘要 生育意愿低已成为我国面临的重大现实问题。在探索从高生育率到低生育率的转变时,已有研究聚焦于经济、政策、个人和社会角度,对家庭因素的影响知之甚少。从家庭角度出发,研究家庭抚养比对女性生育意愿的影响。基准回归结果表明,家庭抚养比对女性生育意愿的影响显著为负。在进行多个稳健性检验后,家庭抚养比对女性生育意愿的影响仍显著为负。研究采用工具变量法解决由于反向因果而导致的内生性问题,结论未发生变化。机制分析表明,家庭抚养比的上升会增加家庭生活成本,减少家庭人均享受型消费,降低女性的生活质量,也可能会增加女性的家务劳动时间,加重女性的工作和家庭冲突,从而抑制女性的生育意愿。研究为探究生育与家庭因素的联系机制提供了新的视角。 Low fertility willingness has become a major issue in China.When exploring the transition from high to low fertility,studies have focused on economic,policy,individual,and social perspectives,with little known about the impact of family factors.This paper studies the impact of the household dependency ratio on women′s fertility willingness from the family perspective.The results of the baseline regression show that the household dependency ratio has a significant negative effect on women′s fertility willingness.After several robustness tests,the effect of the household dependency ratio on women′s fertility willingness remains significantly negative.This paper uses the instrumental variable method to address the endogeneity problem due to reverse causation,and the findings remain unchanged.The mechanism analysis suggests that the increase in the household dependency ratio elevates family living costs,reduces per capita discretionary consumption,and diminishes women′s quality of life.This increase may also lead to more time spent on housework by women,exacerbating the work-family conflicts,thereby suppressing women′s fertility willingness.This paper provides a new perspective for exploring the mechanisms between fertility and family factors.
作者 张成 梁雅楠 ZHANG Cheng;LIANG Yanan(School of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Department of Economics Teaching and Research of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(National Academy of Governance),Beijing 100091,China)
出处 《人口与发展》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第5期84-95,共12页 Population and Development
基金 中国社会科学院青年人文社会科学研究中心社会调研项目(2024QNZX013) 中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)研究生科研创新支持计划项目(2023-KY-75)。
关键词 生育意愿 家庭抚养比 生育支持 Fertility Willingness Household Dependency Ratio Fertility Support
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