兄弟姐妹数量对个体人力资本积累长期影响的性别异质性研究

The Gender Heterogeneity in the Long-Term Effects of the Number of Siblings on Individual Human Capital Accumulation

利用2010年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据估计兄弟姐妹数量对成年个体认知能力和非认知能力性别差异的长期影响,为我国生育政策的调整和完善提供一个新的视角。为了解决回归模型的内生性问题,根据“晚、稀、少”政策实施时间的不同,以及母亲在政策实施时的生育能力的差异构建了兄弟姐妹数量的工具变量。结果显示,相对于男性,兄弟姐妹数量的增加对女性个体认知能力和非认知能力产生显著的负向影响。与“资源稀释理论”和男孩偏好的假说一致,此负效应在农村、低收入地区、信贷欠发达地区更显著。此外,还发现兄弟姐妹数量对女性带来的负向影响在出生顺序靠前时更严重。机制分析表明,兄弟姐妹数量的增加对女性的教育程度和身体健康产生负向影响。即使排除了独生子女政策、移民、是否在独生子女家庭及认知能力和非认知能力度量方法不同可能带来的干扰后,结果依旧很稳健。

This study utilizes data from the 2010 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)to estimate the long-term impact of the number of siblings on the gender differences in cognitive and non-cognitive abilities of adults,and provides a new perspective for the adjustment and improvement of the China′s fertility policy.In order to solve the endogeneity problem of the regression model,this paper constructs instrumental variables for the number of siblings based on the different implementation times of the“Later,Longer,Fewer”policy and the differences in mothers′fertility when the policy is implemented.The results show that an increase in the number of siblings has a significant negative impact on women′s individual cognitive and non-cognitive abilities compare to men.Consistent with“resource dilution theory”and son preference hypothesis,this negative effect is more pronounced in rural areas,low-income areas,and underdeveloped areas.In addition,we found that the negative effect of the number of siblings on women was more severe for those born earlier in the birth order.Mechanism analysis shows that the increase in the number of siblings has a negative effect on women′s education and health.The results are robust even after controlling for possible disruptions caused by the one-child policy,immigration,being in a one-child family,and different in cognitive and non-cognitive measures.