“双碳”目标下赤峰市碳排放现状与分析

Current situation and analysis of carbon emission in Chifeng under the"dual carbon"goal

本文基于赤峰市2012—2022年能源消费量、工业产品生产量和土地利用变化等方面的数据,综合利用能源消费碳排放分解法与土地利用碳排放系数法计算碳排放量,对赤峰市不同碳排放方式引起的碳排放量及碳排放强度变化进行分析,通过综合分析相关数据,为赤峰市能源管理和低碳发展提供有益的参考和决策支持。研究发现,赤峰市的碳排放主要受森林草原覆盖和化石能源消耗的影响,且碳排放总量逐年增加,速率增加了2175.43万t/a。森林和草原作为主要碳汇,近10年来每年吸收二氧化碳约186.41万t。但赤峰市的碳排放量远远超过碳吸收量。森林碳吸收与赤峰市单位GDP碳排放强度关联度最高,关联度分别为0.804,草原碳吸收次之,关联度为0.802。化石燃料燃烧及产品生产的碳排放和人均碳排放强度关联度最高,关联度为0.901,耕地的碳排放次之,关联度为0.68。因此,为实现可持续发展,建议赤峰市增加森林和草原覆盖、优化产业结构、推动清洁能源使用,以控制碳排放增长。

This thesis based on data related to energy consumption,industrial production,and land use changes in Chifeng City from 2012 to 2022,we comprehensively calculate carbon emissions using both the energy consumption carbon emission decomposition method and the land use carbon emission coefficient method.By analyzing the carbon emissions caused by different emission pathways and their intensity changes,we provide valuable references and deci-sion support for energy management and low-carbon development in Chifeng City.The study finds that carbon emis-sions in Chifeng City are mainly influenced by forest and grassland cover and fossil energy consumption.The total amount of carbon emissions increased year by year,with the rate increasing by 21,754,300 tons/a.Forests and grass-lands,serving as major carbon sinks,have absorbed approximately 1.8641 million tons of CO2 annually over the past decade.However,Chifeng City’s carbon emissions far exceed its absorption capacity.Forest carbon sequestration had the highest correlation with carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP in Chifeng,with a correlation of 0.804,respec-tively,followed by grassland carbon sequestration,with a correlation of 0.802.Carbon emissions from fossil fuel com-bustion and product production had the highest correlation with carbon intensity per capita,with a correlation of 0.901,and carbon emissions from cropland were the second highest,with a correlation of 0.68.Therefore,in order to achieve sustainable development,it is recommended that Chifeng City increase forest and grassland cover,optimize industrial structure,and promote the use of clean energy in order to control the growth of carbon emissions.