气候变化下贵州省极端气候事件与植被覆盖的时空分异及预测

Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Prediction of Extreme Weather Events and Vegetation Cover in Guizhou Province Under Climate Change

随着全球气候变暖及人类活动,喀斯特地区极端气候事件发生频次增多。以贵州省为研究区,基于贵州省31个国家气象站的日气象数据、SPOT/VGT NDVI数据集以及CMIP6未来气候模式,综合运用极端气候指数、归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)来探讨贵州省不同情景下的未来极端气候对NDVI的影响,利用全子集回归方法建立多元回归模型预估了未来植被覆盖的变化特征,结果表明2021—2100年:①与暖指数相关的极端气温事件均有上升的趋势,与冷指数相关的极端气温事件均有下降的趋势;②在年总降水量增加的趋势下,年内降水日数增加,但中雨日数发生频次减少,发生极端降水的频次可能会增加;③在SSP245情景和SSP585情景下,贵州省大部分地区植被覆盖度将呈增加趋势。

Due to global warming and human activities,the frequency of extreme climate events in karst areas has increased.Taking Guizhou Province as the study area,based on daily meteorological data from 31 national meteorological stations,SPOT/VGT NDVI dataset,and CMIP6 future climate model in Guizhou Province,this paper explores the effects of the future extreme climate on NDVI under different scenarios in Guizhou Province by comprehensively applying the extreme climate index and the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).Using the all-subsets regression method,it builds a multiple regression model to predict the variation characteristics of the future vegetation cover.The results show that between 2021 and 2100:①the number of the extreme temperature events associated with the warm index all have an increasing trend,and the number of the extreme temperature events associated with the cold index all have a decreasing trend;②in the future,under the trend of increasing total annual precipitation,the number of precipitation days in a year will increase,while the frequency of moderate rainy days will decrease,and the frequency of extreme precipitation may increase;③under the SSP245 scenario and the SSP585 scenario,the vegetation cover in most parts of Guizhou Province will show an increasing trend.