内蒙古城镇居住建筑碳排放脱钩弹性研究

Study on the Decoupling Elasticity of Carbon Emissions from Urban Residential Buildings in Inner Mongolia

基于2006年—2020年能耗面板数据,运用IPCC碳排放系数法测算内蒙古城镇居住建筑碳排放,分析内蒙古城镇居住建筑碳排放现状,利用Tapio模型和LMDI模型对碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩状态和影响因素进行研究。结果显示:碳排放量呈现波动上升趋势,增长趋势逐渐减缓;碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩状态主要呈现3种类型,分别是增长负脱钩、增长联结和弱脱钩,两者发展关系逐渐向好;整体上,经济强度效应是促进碳排放增长的关键因素,能源消耗强度效应是抑制碳排放增长的关键因素,不同影响因素在不同发展时期对碳排放增长的影响存在显著性差异。

Based on the energy consumption panel data from 2006 to 2020,the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of urban residential buildings in Inner Mongolia,analyze the current situation of carbon emissions of urban residential buildings in Inner Mongolia.Using the Tapio model and the LMDI model to study the decoupling status and influencing factors between carbon emissions and economic development.The results show:Carbon emissions show a fluctuating upward trend,and the growth trend gradually slows down;the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic development mainly presents three types,namely negative decoupling of growth,growth linkage and weak decoupling,and the development relationship between the two is gradually improving;Overall,the economic intensity effect is a key factor in promoting the growth of carbon emissions,and the energy consumption intensity effect is a key factor in suppressing the growth of carbon emissions.There are significant differences in the impact of different influencing factors on the growth of carbon emissions in different development periods.