葡语国家制度质量、营商环境与中国对外直接投资——兼谈中国澳门中葡平台的作用

Institutional Quality,Business Environment and China’s OFDI towards Portuguese Speaking Countries——On the Role of the Macao China Portugal Platform

自中国—葡语国家经贸合作论坛成立以来,以语言文化为纽带、以经贸合作为主题、以共同发展为目标,取得丰硕成果。葡语国家发展程度及制度环境存在差异,制度环境是否会对中国在葡语国家的OFDI对外直接投资产生影响,一直以来缺乏实证检验。基于2004—2020年中国对葡语国家OFDI存量数据,构建制度质量和营商环境指标,实证检验了葡语国家制度环境对中国OFDI的影响。研究表明,中国对葡语国家的OFDI存在明显的资源寻求和市场寻求动机,制度质量、营商环境对中国在葡语国家的OFDI不具有直接影响;葡语国家的制度质量和营商环境主要对中国OFDI的资源寻求动机产生正向调节效应;较优的制度环境间接地强化了中国对葡语国家OFDI的资源寻求动机;中国对葡语国家的资源寻求动机强烈或葡语国家的制度环境较差,任意与制度环境相关的指标改善,都将显著地提高中国对葡语国家的OFDI,吸引更多的中国投资者来葡语国家进行投资合作。采用一系列稳健性检验的方法,研究结论依然成立。中国澳门是连接中国与葡语国家的桥梁和中葡论坛的永久举办地,长期发挥着重要的中葡商贸合作服务平台作用。展望未来,中国澳门可以继续夯实中葡平台建设,打造高标准综合性的中葡平台,加强与共建“一带一路”、粤港澳大湾区、深合区建设等对接联动,更好落实《经贸合作行动纲领(2024—2027)》,推动中国与葡语国家经贸合作迈向新阶段。

Since the establishment of the China-Portugal Forum,there has been a gradual increase in investment cooperation between China and the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries(Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa,CPLP).There are differences in the development degrees of economy and institutional environment among the members of the CPLP.There has been a lack of empirical support for whether the institutional environment of the CPLP will have an impact on China’s OFDI to Portuguesespeaking Countries.Based on the stock data of OFDI from China to Portuguese-speaking countries from 2004 to 2020,this paper constructs the macrocosmic institutional quality and the microcosmic business environment,and empirically examines the impact of the institutional environment of Portuguese-speaking countries on China’s OFDI.The research shows that China has obvious resource-seeking and market-seeking motivation for the OFDI to Portuguese-speaking countries,and China has no obvious institutional preference for OFDI in Portuguese-speaking countries.Both the macrocosmic institutional quality and the microcosmic business environment of Portuguese-speaking countries will have a positive regulatory effect on China’s resource-seeking motivation,but the degree of influence is different.Using a series of robustness tests,the conclusion is still robust.