基于LMDI模型的辽宁省农业碳排放影响因素研究

Influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission in Liaoning Province based on LMDI model

在“十四五”规划指导下,辽宁省加快推进农业农村现代化,推动辽宁省由农业大省向农业强省跨越,需明确辽宁省农业碳排放影响因素,寻找农业碳减排侧重点。基于2012—2021年辽宁省农业碳排放历史数据,通过LMDI模型因素分解法识别农业碳排放主要驱动因素,并利用STIRPAT模型定向定量分析各变量数量关系。通过LMDI模型因素分解方法将辽宁省农业碳排放分解为农业碳排放系数、能源强度、农业产业结构、农业经济发展水平及人口规模,其中农业碳排放系数、能源强度和人口规模对农业碳排放存在负向影响,农业产业结构和农业经济发展水平存在正向影响;STIRPAT模型显示,当其他因素保持不变时,农业碳排放系数、能源强度、农业产业结构、农业经济发展水平和人口规模分别变化1%,辽宁省农业碳排放分别变化0.4997%、0.0140%、-0.0735%、-0.0241%和0.2418%,并且模型分析与LMDI模型因素分解呈现相同结果。在“双碳”目标背景下,建议控制化肥施用量、改善农村人口生活环境、稳定保持农村经济持续增长及促进辽宁省农业有效碳减排。

Under guidance of 14th Five-Year Plan,Liaoning Province accelerates modernisation of agriculture and rural areas,and promotes leap from a large agricultural province to a strong agricultural province,so it is necessary to clarify factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Liaoning Province,and to find out focuses of agricultural emission reduction.Based on historical data of agricultural carbon emissions in Liaoning Province from 2012 to 2021,main drivers of agricultural carbon emissions were identified through LMDI factor decomposition method,and quantitative relationship of each variable was quantitatively analyzed using STIRPAT model.Through LMDI factor decomposition method,agricultural carbon emission in Liaoning Province was decomposed into agricultural carbon emission coefficient,energy intensity,agricultural industry structure,agricultural economic development level,and population size,in which agricultural carbon emission coefficient,energy intensity,and population size had a negative impact on agricultural carbon emission,while agricultural industry structure and agricultural economic development level had a positive impact.STIRPAT model showed that when other factors remain unchanged,agricultural carbon emission coefficient,energy intensity,agricultural industry structure,agricultural economic development level,and population size changed by 1% respectively,agricultural carbon emissions changed by 0.4997%,0.0140%,-0.0735%,-0.0241%,and 0.2418% respectively,and model analysis presented with the LMDI factor decomposition the same results.In the context of the"Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral"target,it was recommended to control application of chemical fertilisers,improve living environment of rural population,stabilise and maintain sustainable growth of rural economy,and promote effective carbon emission reduction in agriculture of Liaoning Province.