灾前应急疏散与物资调配的协同优化研究

Collaborative Optimization of Emergency Evacuation and Material Allocation in Pre-disaster Planning

在可预测灾害背景下,高效组织灾害影响区域内的群众安全疏散以及合理调配物资是应急疏散活动中的核心环节;基于此,对多级应急服务网络中应急疏散与物资调配的协同运行整体优化策略进行了研究。受灾群众步行到临时安置点、又由应急车辆疏散至避难所,应急物资调配中心将物资运送至避难所,对上述过程中所涉及到的各类经济成本及利益成本进行分析;着重考虑了连续多周期动态应急活动中的疏散活动和物资调配协同配合,建立了以系统总成本最小为目标的动态整数规划模型;通过GAMS平台编程,调用CPLEX求解器,以不同规模的实验路网验证了模型的有效性,并对关键参数进行了灵敏性分析。研究结果表明:动态疏散方案与应急物资调配数量之间相互影响,足够多的物资能避免哄抢等现象,但需要考虑在避难所这种有限空间下的避难者与应急物资数量之间的均衡;提高受灾群众疏散响应率并增大避难所容量有助于实现更理想的“零滞留”疏散状态;确定合理的未疏散群众单位惩罚成本能有效地保证较高疏散清空率,同时可控制系统惩罚成本无意义的过高。

In the context of predictable disasters,how to efficiently organize the safe evacuation of evacuees in the disaster affected area and reasonably allocate materials is the core link in emergency evacuation activities.Therefore,the overall optimization strategy for the coordinated operation of emergency evacuation and material allocation in a multi-level emergency service network was studied.Firstly,the evacuated people walked to temporary resettlement sites and were then evacuated by emergency vehicles to shelters.Then,the emergency material allocation center transported the materials to the shelters.Finally,the various economic costs and benefit costs of the people involved in the above process were analyzed.A dynamic integer programming model was established with the goal of minimizing the total system cost,focusing on the collaborative cooperation between evacuation and material allocation in continuous multi-period dynamic emergency activities.By programming on the GAMS platform and applying the CPLEX solver,the effectiveness of the proposed model was verified through experimental road networks of different scales,and sensitivity analysis on key parameters was conducted.The research results indicate that there is a mutual influence between the dynamic evacuation plan and the amount of allocated emergency supplies.Sufficient supplies can avoid looting,but it is necessary to consider the balance between disaster victims and emergency supplies in the limited space of the shelter.Improving the response rate of evacuees and increasing the capacity of shelters are helpful to achieve a more ideal"zero detention"evacuation state.Determining a reasonable unit penalty cost for unevacuated crowds can effectively ensure a high evacuation clearance rate,while can also control the system penalty cost from being unnecessarily high.