基于土地利用变化的苏南生境质量与生态红线评估

Assessment of habitat quality and ecological red line in southern Jiangsu Province of eastern China based on land use changes

【目的】评估和模拟快速城镇化对生境质量的影响,为优化生态红线区和生态敏感区调整提供科学依据,进而优化国土空间规划和加强生态空间管控。【方法】以江苏省南部为例,基于PLUS模型、InVEST模型和热点分析等方法,评估2000、2010、2020年的土地利用变化规律、生境质量与退化度的时空演变、预测2030年的变化趋势,并综合定量评估生态红线区生境质量。【结果】(1)2000—2020年,苏南地区土地利用发生显著变化,主要表现为耕地向建设用地和水域转移;生境质量均值呈下降趋势,空间上形成了东西高,中间低的分布格局;生境退化度呈现“中心低–外部高”的圈层分布。(2)2030年3种土地利用模拟情景中,城镇发展情景下,耕地面积减少最多;生态保护情景下,森林和湖泊得到严格保护;可持续发展情景下建设用地规模得到控制。生境质量均值的排序为生态保护情景>可持续发展情景>城镇发展情景。(3)热点分析得出,2020年苏南地区乡镇尺度的生境质量和退化度呈集中分布,城镇中心为冷点区域,热点主要分布在森林和山脉,水域为生境质量的高值区。(4)生态红线区域内的生境质量整体高且相对稳定;在未来预测中,生态保护情景会扩大错位面积,可持续发展情景会降低错位面积。【结论】快速城镇化和人类活动剧烈是导致苏南地区和部分生态红线区内生境质量下降的主要原因。

[Objective]In the context of rapid urbanization,the assessment and simulation of impact of rapid urbanization on habitat quality can provide suggestions for adjusting ecological red line areas and ecologically sensitive areas,so as to improve territorial spatial planning and strengthen ecological spatial control.[Method]In this study,the spatial and temporal evolution of land use changes,habitat quality,and habitat degradation degree in 2000,2010,and 2020 were assessed using the InVEST model and hotspot analysis in southern Jiangsu Province of eastern China.The PLUS model was used to simulate land use changes from 2020 to 2030 and the InVEST model was used to assess habitat quality according to scenarios.[Result](1)From 2000 to 2020,land use in southern Jiangsu Province underwent significant changes,mainly characterized by the transfer of cultivated land to construction land and waters.The average value of habitat quality showed a decreasing trend.Additionally,a spatial distribution pattern emerged,characterized by high quality in the east and west,and low quality in the middle.The degree of habitat degradation showed a radial structure of“low center-high outside”.(2)Among the three land use simulation scenarios in 2030,the urban expansion scenario showed the largest decrease in cultivated land area.Under the ecological protection scenario,forests and lakes were strictly protected;the expansion of construction land was controlled under the sustainable development scenario.The ranking of mean values of habitat quality was ecological protection scenario>sustainable development scenario>urban expansion scenario.(3)The hotspot analysis revealed that in 2020,habitat quality and habitat degradation in southern Jiangsu Province showed a concentrated distribution at the township scale,with the town centers being the cold spots,hotspots mainly in forests and mountains,and watersheds being the hotspot areas of habitat quality.(4)Habitat quality within the ecological red line area was overall high and relatively stable.In future projections,the ecological protection scenario expanded the mismatch area,and the sustainable development scenario decreased the mismatch area.[Conclusion]Rapid urbanization and intense human activities are the main reasons for decline of habitat quality in southern Jiangsu Province and low habitat quality in the part of ecological red line area.Therefore,optimizing the spatial structure of territory and reducing the impact of human activities on sensitive ecological environment areas are of great significance for improving the habitat quality in southern Jiangsu Province of eastern China.