河南省居民人均消费支出及其影响因素的实证研究

Empirical study on the per capita consumption expenditure and its influencing factors in Henan Province

扩大居民消费、增强国内大循环是我国经济发展的重要目标。文章基于河南省经济现实,采集2000年至2023年的宏观经济数据,通过多元回归分析,量化了收入、财政、投资和人口因素对河南省居民人均消费支出的影响。结果表明,增收、减债、缩小城乡收入差异对提振居民消费有重要影响;提升财政支出效率、降低挤出效应可发挥更大作用;保持人口合理增长、抓住新型城市化契机有助于扩大内需;投资对河南省消费的影响并不直接,需要进一步研究。

It is an important goal of China’s economic development to expand residents’consumption and enhance the domestic circulation.Based on the economic reality of Henan Province,this paper collected macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2023,and quantified the impact of income,finance,investment and population factors on the per capita consumption expenditure of residents in Henan Province through multiple regression analysis.The results show that increasing income,reducing debt and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas have an important impact on boosting residents’consumption;Improving the efficiency of fiscal expenditure and reducing the crowding out effect can play a greater role;Maintaining reasonable population growth and seizing the opportunity of new urbanization will help to expand domestic demand;The impact of investment on consumption in Henan Province is not direct and needs further study.