潍坊市环境温度对人群非意外死亡风险的影响

Impact of environmental temperature on risk of non accidental deaths of the crowd in Weifang City

目的分析潍坊市2010—2022年环境温度与人群非意外死亡之间的关系,研究不适环境温度对人群死亡的影响。方法收集潍坊市2010—2022年气象数据与人群死亡数据,采用时间序列方法分析环境温度对该市非意外死亡风险的影响。结果2010—2022年潍坊市非意外死亡767480例,其中慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡72036例,心脑血管疾病死亡423939例。2010—2022年潍坊市最适宜温度(即最低死亡率温度)为22.1℃。极低温对人群非意外死亡的风险累积效应值为1.285(95%CI:1.168~1.415),极高温对人群非意外死亡的风险累积效应值为1.141(95%CI:1.076~1.209);温度每升高1℃,非意外死亡的超额危险度为0.91%(95%CI:0.80%~1.02%);温度对非意外总死亡的归因百分比为9.13%(95%CI:5.43%~12.92%),其中低温对死亡的归因百分比高于高温,男性受温度影响的死亡效应低于女性,心脑血管疾病和慢性呼吸系统疾病受温度影响的死亡效应高于非意外总死亡。结论高温或低温均会增加人群非意外死亡风险,低温对于死亡的影响时间比高温长,应关注慢性呼吸系统疾病和心脑血管疾病等敏感人群。

Objective To understand the relationship between environmental temperature and deaths in Weifang City from 2010 to 2022 and the impact of unfavorable environmental temperatures on the mortality.Methods The meteorological data and population mortality data from Weifang City during 2010-2022 were collected,and a time series analysis was conducted to analyze the impact of environmental temperature on the risk of non-accidental deaths in Weifang City.Results A total of 767480 non-accidental deaths occurred in Weifang City from 2010 to 2022,including cerebrovascular diseases and 72036 and 423939 deaths from cardiovascular deaths from chronic respiratory diseases.The lowest death temperature in Weifang City from 2010 to 2022 was 22.1℃.The cumulative effect value of the risk of death from extremely low temperatures was 1.285(95%CI:1.168-1.415),and the cumulative effect value of the risk of death from extremely high temperatures was 1.141(95%CI:1.076-1.209).For every 1℃increase in temperature,the excess risk of death was 0.91%(95%CI:0.80%-1.02%).The attributable percentage of temperature to total deaths was 9.13%(95%CI:5.43%-12.92%),with the attributable percentage of low temperatures higher than that of high temperatures.The mortality effect of men affected by temperature is lower than that of women,and the mortality effect of cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases affected by temperature was higher than non accidental total mortality.Conclusion Both high and low temperatures can increase the risk of death,with the impact of low temperatures lasting longer than that of high temperatures.More attention should be paid to susceptible populations with chronic respiratory diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.