国际贸易网络与企业出口波动

International Trade Networks and Export Fluctuations

“稳外贸”是中国实现外贸高质量发展的题中之义。本文从国际贸易网络的视角出发,旨在研究企业在国际贸易网络中的地位对于稳定外贸的影响效应。基于2002—2016年CEPII全球双边贸易数据库、中国海关与上市公司的匹配数据,测算了企业层面的贸易网络地位,在此基础上从实证角度检验了贸易网络地位对企业出口波动的影响,并从需求和供给两方面出发研究了其作用机制。研究发现,(1)企业贸易网络地位的提高能够抑制企业出口波动;(2)企业贸易网络地位主要通过实现出口多样化、降低贸易风险和保障中间品供给来抑制企业出口波动;(3)相比于非国有企业、小型企业和劳动密集型企业,贸易网络在抑制企业出口波动方面对于国有企业、中大型企业和非劳动密集型企业的效果更显著。

China aims to achieve high-quality foreign trade development by stabilizing foreign trade.This paper studies the impact of firms'positions in the international trade network on the stability of foreign trade.Based on the 2002-2016 CEPII Global Bilateral Trade Database,and matching data from China Customs and listed companies,this paper measures trade network positions at the firm level;empirically examines the impact of trade network positions on firms'export fluctuations;and explores the mechanisms from both demand and supply sides.The findings are as fllows.(1)Improving firms'trade network positions can suppress export fluctuations.(2)Firms'trade network positions suppress export fluctuations by diversifying exports,reducing trade risks,and ensuring intermediate supply.(3)Trade networks are more effective in suppressing export fluctuations for state-owned firms,medium-sized firms,large firms,and non-labor-intensive firms,compared with non-state-owned firms,small firms,and labor-intensive firms.