气候变化下反枝苋潜在中国适生区及生态位研究

Potential Distribution and Niche Dynamics of Amaranthus retroflexus under Climate Change in China

反枝苋(Amaranthus retroflexus)属高存活率入侵性植物,关注其在气候变化下的潜在分布格局和生态位变化,对当地作物生长和畜牧业健康发展具有重要意义。本研究基于观测点位和环境变量数据,使用最大熵(Maximum entropy,MaxEnt)模型和R语言ecospat包,对适生区潜在分布进行预测,并分析生态位。结果表明:海拔、年均温和年平均降水量是影响分布扩散的主要因子,累计贡献率达92%;在气候变化下,反枝苋的潜在分布区逐渐向我国的北部和西北部扩散,在2070年SSP585气候模式下扩散程度最大;随着气温升高,反枝苋逐渐向海拔较高、最暖月最高温度较低的地区分布扩散。在未来适宜生存的生态位重叠度将逐渐降低,并可能发生生态位变化。本研究将为气候变化下的反枝苋种群入侵提供保护政策和决策依据。

Amaranthus retroflexus is a highly persistent invasive plant.Understanding its potential distribution and niche shifts under climate change is crucial for local crop growth and livestock health.Based on observational data and environmental variables,we predicted the potential distribution and analyzed the ecological niche using MaxEnt and the ecospat package in R.The results indicated that elevation,annual mean temperature and annual precipitation were the primary factors influencing distribution,contributing cumulatively 92%to the model.Under climate change scenarios,the potential distribution area of A.retroflexus was projected to expand northward and northwestward in China,with the greatest expansion under the SSP585 climate model by 2070.As temperatures rose,A.retroflexus was expected to spread to higher elevations and regions with lower maximum temperatures in the warmest month.The overlap of suitable habitats for future survival would gradually decrease,potentially leading to niche shifts.This study provided a basis for protection policies and decision-making regarding the invasion of A.retroflexus populations under climate change.