蒙阴流域日径流模拟多模型比较研究

Comparative Study on Multiple Hydrological Models in Daily Runoff Simulation of Mengyin Watershed

选择MARRMoT建模工具箱中16个集总式水文模型对湿润半湿润的蒙阴流域进行日径流模拟,对比分析不同模型在该流域的适用性。使用Nelder-Mead单纯形搜索法确定模型参数,选取确定性系数、Kling-Gupta效率系数和洪量相对误差指标评定模型精度;根据模拟精度对模型适用性进行排序,综合考虑模型结构和参数个数,对模拟精度的影响因素进行分析。结果表明,新安江模型和GR4J模型的精度最优,SMAR和HBV模型次之;模型结构是影响模拟精度的重要因素,模型参数个数影响不大,复杂的模型并不意味着更好的模拟结果。研究可为湿润半湿润流域水文模型的选择及应用提供参考。

Sixteen lumped hydrological models in Modular Assessment of Rainfall-Runoff Models Toolbox(MARRMoT),which are commonly used in humid and semi-humid catchments,were applied to the daily runoff simulation of Mengyin Watershed.Further analyses were conducted on the daily runoff simulation results to compare the applicability of these models.The Nelder-Mead simplex search method was used to determine the parameters of all models.The coefficient of determination,Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient,and relative error of flood volume were selected to evaluate the simulation accuracy of different models,and the applicability of models is sorted by simulation accuracy.The model structure and number of parameters were comprehensively considered to analyze the factors affecting simulation accuracy.The results show that the XAJ and GR4J models have the best accuracy,followed by the SAMR model and HBV model.The model structure is an important factor affecting the simulation accuracy,and the number of model parameters has little effect.Complex models may not yield better simulation results.This study can serve as a reference for the selection and application of hydrological models in humid and semi-humid regions.