人口老龄化、新质生产力与制造业高质量发展

Population Aging,Technological Progress and High-quality Development of Manufacturing

在人口老龄化的大背景下,发展新质生产力是实现制造业高质量发展的必然选择,加快形成新质生产力是制造业高质量发展的内在要求。为了探究人口老龄化、新质生产力与制造业高质量发展之间的关系,本文利用熵权法分别建立新质生产力和制造业高质量发展的指标体系,通过建立空间杜宾模型对人口老龄化、新质生产力和制造业高质量发展之间的关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明:人口老龄化对制造业高质量发展有显著的负向影响,新质生产力水平对制造业高质量发展有着显著的正向影响;制造业高质量发展水平在逐年提高,东部沿海地区与中西部地区之间的制造业高质量发展水平仍然存在较大差距,呈现出发展不平衡的特征;不同省(区、市)的制造业高质量发展水平具有一定的空间相关性;人口老龄化对东部地区制造业高质量发展的负向影响最为显著,对中、西部地区的负面影响较小,表现出明显的非均衡效应。

In the context of population aging,the development of new quality productivity is the inevitable choice to achieve the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry,and accelerating the formation of new quality productivity is the inherent requirement of the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.In order to explore the relationship between population aging,new quality productivity and high-quality development of manufacturing industry,this paper uses the entropy weight method to establish the index system of new quality productivity and high-quality development of manufacturing industry,and empirically analyzes the relationship between population aging,new quality productivity and high-quality development of manufacturing industry by establishing a spatial Durbin model.The empirical results show that population aging has a significant negative impact on the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry,and the level of new productivity has a significant positive impact on the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry;the high-quality development level of the manufacturing industry is improving year by year,and there is still a large gap between the high-quality development level of the manufacturing industry in the eastern coastal region and the central and western regions,showing the characteristics of unbalanced development;the highquality development level of the manufacturing industry in different provinces has a certain spatial correlation;the negative impact of population aging on the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry in the eastern region is the most significant,and the negative impact on the central and western regions is small,showing an obvious unbalanced effect.