美国台海“一体化威慑”战略的目标、逻辑与后果

The Objectives,Logic and Consequences of the U.S.Integrated Deterrence Strategy in the Taiwan Straits

为干涉台湾问题、强化威慑成效,美国基于既有威慑策略,进一步充实威慑机理,推动整合资源、要素、机构与行为体,实现从威慑到“一体化威慑”的战略调整。根据威慑的逻辑演绎,美国台海“一体化威慑”战略丰富和强化了威慑的“允诺成分”与“震慑成分”,意图提高中国内地和台湾地区和平“维持现状”的纯收益差。但是,美国台海“一体化威慑”战略存在西方中心主义视角和“非理性悖论”,忽视了中国内地对于解决台湾问题的“决心优势”,可能为美国带来“螺旋困境”“安全困境”,进一步恶化国内政党和社会撕裂。中国内地应对美国威慑战略调整作出及时反应,彰显反向威慑决心,不断巩固对两岸关系的主导权与主动权。

In order to interfere in the Taiwan question and strengthen the effectiveness of deterrence,the United States further enriches the deterrence mechanism based on the existing deterrence strategy,promotes the integration of resources,factors,institutions and actors,and realizes the strategic adjustment from deterrence to"integrated deterrence".According to the logical deduction of deterrence,the U.S.strategy of"integrated deterrence"in the Taiwan Straits has enriched and strengthened the"promise component"and"deterrence component"of deterrence,and has increased the net return differential between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan,in peacefully"maintaining the status quo".However,the U.S."integrated deterrence"strategy in the Taiwan Straits has a western-centered perspective and an"irrational paradox",which ignores the"determination advantage"of Chinese mainland s in resolving the Taiwan question,which may bring the U.S.a"spiral dilemma"and a"security dilemma",further worsen the tearing of domestic political parties and the society.The Chinese mainland should respond promptly to the adjustments in the U.S.deterrence strategy,demonstrate our determination to reverse deterrence,and continue to consolidate our dominance and initiative in cross-Strait relations.