基于MIKE耦合模型的开都河中短期径流预报

Medium-short-term runoff forecast of Kaidu River based on MIKE coupling model

为提供开都河水库优化调度和水资源科学管理的依据,应用MIKE耦合模型进行流域中短期径流预报。选取欧洲天气预报中心(ECMWF)气象预报模式作为气象数据输入,构建包含6个子模块(蒸散发、非饱和带、饱和带、坡面流、河流与湖泊)和融雪模块的MIKE SHE模型。将MIKE Hydro river模型作为河道汇流计算与MIKE SHE模型耦合对未来10 d径流信息进行预报。选用相关系数(R^(2))、纳什效率系数(NSE)和相对误差(BAIS)评价模型率定与验证结果,添加预报效率(E)评价模型预报精度。研究表明:在开都河日尺度径流模拟中,验证期R 2和NSE均大于0.70,相对误差仅为-15%,可见模拟径流与实测径流之间具有较好的拟合性和相关性;预报期的NSE=0.53、R^(2)=0.61、E=0.51,说明模拟值与实测值的相关性达0.61。MIKE耦合模型的中短期径流预报可为开都河流域水资源优化利用提供参考。

In order to provide a technical support for the optimal operation of the Kaidu River Reservoir and the scientific regulation of water resources,the MIKE coupling model is used to forecast the medium-short-term runoff in the basin.The weather forecast model from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)is selected as the meteorological data input to construct a MIKE SHE model consisting of six sub-modules,namely,evapotranspiration,unsaturated zone,saturated zone,slope flow,river and lake,and snowmelt module.Then,the MIKE Hydro river model which is used for the river confluence calculation is coupled with MIKE SHE model to predict the runoff information in the next ten days.The correlation coefficient(R^(2)),Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)and relative error(BAIS)are used to evaluate the calibration and verification effect of the model,and the prediction efficiency(E)is introduced to evaluate the model prediction accuracy.The results show that in daily runoff simulation of the Kaidu River,the R^(2)and NSE in the verification period are both above 0.70,and the BAIS is only-15%,indicating a good fit and correlation between the simulated runoff and the measured runoff.In the forecast period,NSE=0.53,R^(2)=0.61,E=0.51,indicating a correlation of 0.61 between the simulated and measured value.The medium-short-term runoff forecast based on the MIKE coupling model can provide a reference for the optimal utilization of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin.