基于系统动力学模型的战时弹药储备量优化分析

Optimization Analysis of Ammunition Reserve Quantity in Wartime Based on System Dynamics Model

针对弹药保障过程中,战时弹药储备量对弹药保障系统具有一定影响,单纯依靠传统经验无法对一些决策作出正确判断的问题,提出了基于系统动力学的方法,分析战时弹药供应系统内部各因素影响,建立战时弹药保障系统动力学模型,在弹药消耗速率、弹药供应时间一定的条件下,通过vensim软件仿真算出单位弹药储备量的最优值,并改变弹药补给时间和战前弹药储备量,结合弹药补给率波动曲线,分析出弹药补给时间及战前弹药储备量对战时弹药保障的影响,从而得到某一变量变化对其他变量的数值影响,为指挥员在弹药保障决策中提供相关数据参考。

In the process of ammunition support,the amount of ammunition reserve in wartime affects not only a certain aspect of the ammunition support system but the whole system.The traditional experience alone cannot make a correct judgment on some decisions.This model proposes a method based on system dynamics,analyzes the internal factors of the ammunition supply system in wartime,and establishes the dynamics model of the ammunition support system in wartime.Under the condition that ammunition consumption rate and ammunition supply time are fixed,the optimal value of unit ammunition reserve is calculated by vensim software simulation.The influence of ammunition replenishment time and ammunition reserve before the war on ammunition support during wartime is analyzed by changing the ammunition replenishment time and ammunition reserve before war combined with the fluctuation curve of ammunition replenishment rate,to obtain the numerical influence of the change of one variable on other variables,which can provide relevant data reference for commanders in ammunition support decision-making.