宁波市森林火灾时空特征及预报模型研究

Study on Temporal-spatial Distribution Characteristics and ForecastModel of Forest Fire in Ningbo

本文基于2001—2021年浙江省森林火灾档案数据,对宁波地区历史森林火灾时空分布特征及原因进行分析。另外,利用智能网格气象预报数据,通过融合地表可燃物、地形及人为活动等森林火灾风险因子,构建宁波地区森林火险预报模型,得到森林火灾风险等级产品。结果表明:2001—2021年期间,宁波地区森林火灾呈现先上升后下降的趋势。人为活动是引发森林火灾的主要原因。1—4月的冬春季节、10∶00—16∶00是森林火灾发生的集中时期。海拔在400 m以下,坡度在18°~36°的低山丘陵区是森林火灾的主要发生区域。距离路网和居民点越近,森林火灾越容易发生。利用2021—2023年宁波地区的历史火情对预报模型的精度验证表明,模型能够精细化预报宁波地区的森林火险等级,可以有效防控约71%的火点,对宁波地区的森林防火具有重要指导作用。

Based on the data of forest fires in Zhejiang Province from 2001 to 2021,the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and causes of historical forest fires in Ningbo are analyzed.Additionally,a forest fire forecast modelin Ningbo is constructed to produce forest fire risk level products,by utilizing intelligent gridforecasting data and integrating risk factors such as surface flammable materials,topography,and human activities.The results indicate that the forest fires in the Ningbo showed a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease during from 2001 to 2021.Human activities are the main causes of forest fires.The winter and spring seasons from January to April and 10∶00—16∶00,are the periods when forest fires occur frequently.Forest fires mainly occurred in hilly areas with an elevation of less than 400 m and a slope of 18°-36°.The closer to the road network and residential areas,the more likely forest fires are to occur.The accuracy of the prediction model is verified by the historical fires in Ningbo from 2021 to 2023,the results show that the model could finely predict the forest fire danger level in Ningbo,and could effectively prevent and control about 71%of the fire points,which played an important guiding role in forest fire prevention in Ningbo.