基于生态足迹模型的海西州可持续发展评价

Evaluation of sustainable development of Haixi Prefecture based on ecological footprint model

基于生态足迹模型,对海西州2005—2019年的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行了定量的计算与分析,并结合万元GDP生态足迹、生态足迹多样性指数、发展能力指数和可持续发展指数多项指标对海西州的可持续发展进行了多角度评价,并对海西州未来10年的可持续发展指数进行了预测。结果表明:(1)2005—2019年海西州的人均生态足迹逐渐上升,并未出现生态赤字,但人均生态盈余呈下降趋势,其中化石能源的过渡消耗是造成人均生态足迹上升的主要原因;(2)万元GDP生态足迹呈波动下降趋势,说明海西州近15年的发展速度加快,资源利用率不断升高;(3)生态足迹多样性指数呈下降趋势,说明海西州生态足迹的多样性减少,土地利用的分配不均匀性加强,但其发展能力指数呈上升趋势;(4)海西州生态可持续性指数逐渐下降,2005—2013年的生态环境处于中等可持续性,2014—2019年生态环境处于轻度可持续性,可看出近15年海西州的生态环境虽然处于可持续发展状态,但是生态压力也在日趋加重,未来10年的可持续发展指数呈持续下降趋势,可持续发展形势不容乐观。评价结果可以为海西州未来的可持续性发展提供有益的参考。

Based on the ecological footprint model,the ecological footprint per capita and ecological carrying capacity per capita of Haixi Prefecture from 2005 to 2019 were quantitatively calculated and analyzed.Combined with the ecological footprint of 10000 Yuan GDP,ecological footprint diversity index,development capability index and sustainability index,the sustainable development status of Haixi Prefecture was evaluated from multiple angles,and the sustainability index of Haixi Prefecture in the next 10 years was predicted.The results showed that:(1)From 2005 to 2019,the ecological footprint per capita of Haixi Prefecture gradually increased,and there was no ecological deficit,but the ecological surplus per capita showed a downward trend.The excessive consumption of fossil energy was the main reason for the increase of ecological footprint per capita.(2)The ecological footprint of 10000 Yuan GDP shows a fluctuating downward trend,which indicates that the development speed of Haixi Prefecture has accelerated in recent 15 years,and the utilization rate of resources has increased.(3)The ecological footprint diversity index showed a downward trend,which indicated that the diversity of Haixi Prefecture’s ecological footprint decreased and the uneven distribution of land use increased,but its development capability index showed an upward trend;(4)The ecological sustainability index of Haixi Prefecture gradually declined.The ecological environment was in medium sustainability from 2005 to 2013,and the ecological environment was in a low level of sustainability from 2014 to 2019.It can be seen that the ecological environment of Haixi Prefecture in recent 15 years has been in a state of sustainable development,but the ecological pressure is increasing day by day.Sustainability index in the next 10 years will continue to decline,and the situation of sustainable development is not optimistic.The evaluation results can provide useful reference for the sustainable development of Haixi Prefecture in the future.