基于生态足迹的青藏高原生态脆弱区可持续发展能力评价与预测——以青海省海南藏族自治州为例

Evaluation and prediction of the sustainable development capacity of the ecologically vulnerable areas of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on ecological footprint:A case study of Hainan Tibetan autonomous prefecture in Qinghai province

青海省海南藏族自治州属于青藏高原生态脆弱区,是维护青藏高原和黄河上游生态系统安全的重要屏障,其环境可持续发展状态对于区域生态系统安全具有重要意义。基于海南州2008—2018年统计数据,通过生态足迹相关模型对海南州环境可持续发展状态进行了实证研究,并采用灰色预测模型对海南州环境可持续发展状态进行了预测。结果表明:(1)2008—2018年海南州人均生态足迹逐年上升,人均生态承载力逐年下降。人均生态赤字逐年变大,生态安全状态不断恶化。(2)分地域类型,草地生态系统在海南州生态系统中占有重要地位,人均生态足迹和生态承载力占比高,水域可持续发展状态恶化明显。(3)根据模型预测,如果按照目前的生活生产方式,海南州环境可持续发展状态将由2018年的弱不可持续演变为2025年的中等不可持续。

Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in Qinghai Province belongs to the ecologically fragile area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.It is an important barrier to maintain the security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the upper reaches of the Yellow River.Its sustainable development of environment is of great significance to the regional ecosystem security.Based on the statistical data of Hainan from 2008 to 2018,this paper made an empirical study on the state of environmental sustainable development in Hainan through the ecological footprint model,and used the Grey Prediction model to predict the state of environmental sustainable development in Hainan.The results showed that:(1)From 2008 to 2018,the per capita ecological footprint of Hainan Prefecture increased year by year,and the per Capita ecological carrying capacity decreased year by year.The per capita ecological deficit was increasing year by year,and the state of ecological security was deteriorating.(2)According to the type of region,the grassland ecosystem occupied an important position in the ecosystem of Hainan Prefecture.The per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity accounted for a high proportion,and the sustainable development status of the water area had deteriorated significantly.(3)According to the model prediction,if according to the current life and production methods,the state of environmental sustainability in Hainan Prefecture will evolve from being weakly unsustainable in 2018 to medium unsustainable in 2025.