韶关地区强降水概率分布特征及环流背景分析研究

Analysis study of probability distribution characteristics and circulation background analysis of heavy precipitation in Shaoguan area

文章利用勒帕热检验法和广义极值分布对韶关地区的强降水概率分布特征进行了分析,并对其环流背景进行了研究。研究结果表明:韶关地区的强降水趋势在1992年发生由减小到增加的突然变化,前汛期的强降水量和强降水强度降低,后汛期明显增加;韶关地区从南到北的平均日最大降水量、暴雨天数等空间分布,前汛期呈现“南多北少”、后汛期呈现“东多中少”的特征;强降水的环流背景主要是澳大利亚高压和马斯克林高压的强度变化,两高压同时增强时,韶关地区前汛期强降水偏少,后汛期强降水偏多。希望研究结果能为韶关地区的强降水预报和防灾减灾工作提供参考价值。

The article analyzed the probability distribution characteristics of heavy precipitation in Shaoguan area using the Lepage test method and generalized extreme value distribution,and studied its circulation background.The research results indicate that the trend of heavy precipitation in Shaoguan area suddenly changed from decreasing to increasing in 1992.The amount and intensity of heavy precipitation decreased during the pre flood season,and increased significantly during the post flood season.The spatial distribution of the average daily maximum precipitation and rainstorm days from south to north in Shaoguan shows the characteristics of"more in the south and less in the north"in the early flood season and"more in the east and less in the middle"in the later flood season.The circulation background of heavy precipitation is mainly the intensity changes of the Australian high pressure and the Mascarene high pressure.When both high pressures strengthen simultaneously,there is less heavy precipitation in the pre flood season and more heavy precipitation in the post flood season in Shaoguan area.It is hoped that the research results can provide reference value for heavy precipitation forecasting and disaster prevention and reduction work in Shaoguan area.