中国天然气供需安全评价与发展建议

Security evaluation and sugggestion of natural gas supply & demand in China

双碳目标的提出,对中国能源结构的调整作出新的要求,天然气作为化石能源中碳排放量最低的能源,成为能源转型过程中的关键过渡能源,天然气供需安全成为能源安全的核心组成部分。从资源、供应、需求和进口4个维度遴选中国天然气供需安全影响因子,建立天然气供需安全评价指标体系。利用Critic法对指标赋权,构建多元线性综合评价模型,对2012—2022年中国天然气资源安全度、供应安全度、需求安全度、进口安全度以及综合安全度进行测算和分析。结果表明,影响中国天然气供需安全的关键指标为储采比、进口集中度、自给率、储量指数;中国天然气供需总体安全状态处于Ⅲ级。资源安全度逐年升高,从Ⅳ级提高到Ⅱ级;供应安全度变化呈“W”型特征,维持在Ⅲ级;需求安全度趋于稳定,保持在Ⅱ级;进口安全度呈下滑趋势,从Ⅱ级降至Ⅲ级。要保障中国天然气供需安全稳步提升,需从多角度着手,主要措施包括持续推进油气增储上产计划、促进能源结构多元化、建立健全天然气多元进口渠道、积极发挥政府的主导作用等。

Carbon peaking and Carbon neutrality goals makes new requirements for the adjustment of China's energy structure.Natural gas,as the energy with the lowest carbon emissions in fossil energy,has become the key transitional energy in the process of energy transformation,and the security of natural gas supply and demand has become the core component of energy security.In order to reveal the current situation of China's natural gas supply and demand security,scientifically formulate planning plans to ensure the security of energy supply.This paper selects the safety influence factors of Chinese natural gas supply and demand safety from the four dimensions of resources,supply,demand and import,and establishes the evaluation index system of natural gas supply and demand safety.The Critic method is used to empower the indicators,and a multi-linear comprehensive evaluation model is constructed to calculate the safety degree of natural gas resources,supply safety degree,demand safety degree,import safety degree and comprehensive safety degree in China from 2012 to 2022.The results show that:(1)The key indicators affecting the security of China's natural gas supply and demand are reserve-production ratio,import concentration,self-sufficiency rate,and reserve index.(2)China's natural gas supply and demand security state is at level III.Among them,the degree of resource security has increased year by year,from level IV to level II;The change in supply security is characterized by a"W"shape,which remains at level III;The demand safety degree tends to be stable and remains at level II;The degree of import safety showed a downward trend,from level II to level III.The conclusion is that in order to ensure the steady improvement of natural gas supply and demand,it is necessary to continuously promote the plan of oil and gas storage and production,promote the diversified import channels of natural gas,and actively play the leading role of the government are the effective measures to improve the safety of China's natural gas supply and demand in China.