摘要
According to news reports on severe earthquakes since 2008,a total of 51 cases with magnitudes of 6.0 or above were analyzed,and 14 frequently occurring secondary disasters were identified.A disaster chain model was developed using principles from complex network theory.The vulnerability and risk level of each edge in this model were calculated,and high-risk edges and disaster chains were identified.The analysis reveals that the edge“floods→building collapses”has the highest vulnerability.Implementing measures to mitigate this edge is crucial for delaying the spread of secondary disasters.The highest risk is associated with the edge“building collapses→casualties,”and increased risks are also identified for chains such as“earthquake→building collapses→casualties,”“earthquake→landslides and debris flows→dammed lakes,”and“dammed lakes→floods→building collapses.”Following an earthquake,the prompt implementation of measures is crucial to effectively disrupt these chains and minimize the damage from secondary disasters.
通过收集2008年以来重大地震事件的新闻报道,分析51起震级大于等于6.0级的地震,总结出14个出现频次较高、具有代表性的地震次生灾害事件.然后基于复杂网络理论构建灾害网络拓扑结构模型,对该模型的各边分别进行脆弱度和风险度的计算,最终确定风险度较高的连接边和灾害链.结果表明:“洪灾→建筑倒塌”的脆弱度最高,从防范地震次生灾害的角度对其事前采取断链措施有利于最大程度延缓次生灾害的传播;“建筑倒塌→人员伤亡”的风险度最大,同时灾害链当中“地震→建筑物倒塌→人员伤亡”“地震→山体滑坡和泥石流→堰塞湖”和“堰塞湖→洪水→建筑物倒塌”等链的风险也较高.在地震灾害发生后应及时对这些风险度较大的边采取断链措施,从而有效减少地震次生灾害的危害.
基金
National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3803000).
