备豫不虞:科技创新不确定性风险及应对策略研究

Be prepared:research on the uncertain risks of scientific technological innovation and countermeasures

新时期科技创新的全域极端重要性日益显现,成为国际竞争的核心和国际争端的焦点,但科技创新指数级突破在带来新方案、新业态的同时也存在较高的不确定性。研究通过对“不确定性风险”的内涵、科技创新不确定性的引致因素进行分析,认为“不确定性”是科技创新的基本特点和规律,是科技创新风险的核心和来源;在我国由创新型国家行列迈入创新型国家前列的关键“转折期”,科技创新不确定性呈现出“创新节奏多变、创新强度不均衡、创新方向难预测及监管体系滞后”等新特征,在此基础上,利用相关案例和数据,归纳出这些特征在“社会、安全、产业及治理”领域的风险表现,针对各领域的风险源,基于“预警-预立-预防-预判”的治理思路,提出了“风险约束-风险规制-风险控制-风险平衡”的应对策略,以期进一步提升科技创新制度供给的有效性。

The exponential breakthrough in scientific and technological innovation brings new solutions and new business formats,but it also comes with high uncertainty.Uncertainty is considered to constitute the core and source of scientific and technological innovation risks.The overall cognition of“uncertainty”is regarded as the prerequisite for realizing the predictive governance of scientific and technological innovation risks.This study analyzes the connotation of“uncertainty risk”and the contributing factors that cause the uncertainty of scientific and technological innovation,then summarizes the new characteristics of the uncertainty of scientific and technological innovation in the“transition period”.On this basis,a large number of cases and data are used to summarize the risk performance of these characteristics in the field of“society,security,industry and governance”,and corresponding governance ideas and coping strategies are formulated for the risk sources in each field,in order to further enhance the effectiveness of the supply of scientific and technological innovation systems.