高速公路收费与运营成本关系研究——基于随机森林回归与OLS回归的分析

Research on the Relationship Between Highway Toll Fees and Operating Costs——Analysis based on random forest regression and OLS regression

运营成本作为决定高速公路收费标准的关键因素,实际上反映了对道路设施的高效管理和持续性投入。通过合理调整收费标准,能够确保充足的资金用于运营支出,从而最大限度地延长高速公路的使用寿命,并保障道路的高水平性能。本文基于某省2009年以来高速公路收费与运营成本数据,分析高速公路收费与运营成本之间的关系,分别构建基于运营成本与高速公路里程和交通量的随机森林回归模型和基于运营成本与高速公路收费的OLS模型,对未来的高速公路收费进行预测。模型构建结果表明:随机森林回归模型、OLS模型表现出较高的预测精准度和趋势把控能力。预测结果显示:未来高速公路收费收入会不断增加,但是上升的趋势逐渐放缓。据此,政府和相关部门需要综合考虑相关影响因素,设定不过度增加成本的安全标准,同时定期评估收费标准,保障收费政策的科学合理性。

Operating costs,as a key factor in determining highway toll standards,actually reflect the efficient management and continuous investment in road infrastructure.By reasonably adjusting toll rates,sufficient funds can be ensured for operational expenses,thereby maximizing the lifespan of highways and ensuring high-level road performance.This paper analyzed the relationship between highway tolls and operating costs based on toll and operating cost data of a certain province since2009.It constructed a random forest regression model based on operating costs,highway mileage,and traffic volume,as well as an OLS model based on operating costs and highway tolls,to predict future highway tolls.The results of the model construction indicated that both the random forest regression model and the OLS model demonstrate high predictive accuracy and the ability to capture trends.The prediction results showed that future highway toll revenues will continue to increase,but the upward trend will gradually slow.Accordingly,the government and relevant departments need to comprehensively consider related factors,establish safety standards that do not excessively increase costs,and regularly evaluate toll standards to ensure the scientific rationality of toll policies.